Трансформация международной торговли минеральными ресурсами в условиях глобального энергетического перехода

Аннотация

International trade in critical mineral resources has garnered significant attention from policymakers, economists, businesses, environmentalists, and stakeholders worldwide. This focus is driven by the massive patterns of consumption and production associated with these resources on a global scale. Moreover, the pursuit of a cleaner energy transition, driven by international mineral trade, reflects a global aspiration to establish accessible and reliable energy sources, as outlined in SDG 7, which aims to ensure sustainable development worldwide. The relevance of this research can be attributed to several factors. First, the fulfilment of energy transition goals outlined in different countries' nationally determined contributions (NDCs) necessitates critical minerals as raw materials for manufacturing various cleaner power machinery, encompassing wind turbines, electric vehicles (EVs), solar photovoltaics (PVs), and other power-conserving mechanisms. World Bank's 2023 report divulges that the manufacture of crucial minerals—namely nickel, lithium, graphite, copper, and cobalt—will increase by approximately 500% by 2050 to meet the growing demand for cleaner power machinery and achieve the objective of curtailing the global temperature increase to beneath 1.5°C above pre-industrial heights by the late twenty-first century. Consequently, countries are strengthening their international trade in minerals by importing essential minerals from nations abundant in these resources. Second, the international trade of critical minerals, crucial for driving clean energy transitions, encounters disruptions stemming from the concentration of mineral commodities in a limited number of countries, as well as trade regulatory and Black Swan Syndrome elements encompassing geopolitical tensions, such as the ramifications of the Covid-19 outbreak and the Russo-Ukrainian crisis. Western solar and wind manufacturers have witnessed successive quarters of adverse net margins since 2019, attributable to fluctuations in global demand, issues within the supply chain, and the escalating costs associated with critical minerals and oil resources. These factors exert a pivotal influence in shaping the trajectory of global clean energy transitions, which are integral for ensuring sustainable energy supply and are widely acknowledged as indispensable facets of sustainable development. Third, alongside geopolitical tensions, a multitude of country-specific and global economic disruptions to macroeconomic factors hinder the smooth progression of international mineral trade. Furthermore, the global economic downturn, trade conflicts among industry leaders, protectionist trade policies, and fluctuations in prices and exchange rates introduce a level of unpredictability into the global economic landscape. Consequently, uncertainties in economic policies wield a significant influence on the global movement of international mineral trade (both exports and imports), which primarily serves the purpose of promoting the advancement of clean energy transitions. These aforementioned factors directly impact the progress of global clean energy transitions facilitated by international mineral trade, thereby contributing to the realization of sustainable development objectives.