Влияние санкций на туристический приток / The influence of sanctions on international tourist inflows

Фалалеев Кирилл Вячеславович

Аннотация


This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the literature on the relationship between economic sanctions and tourist flows. The main objective is to assess how economic sanctions affect a country's tourism industry. And also to identify significant findings and areas that require further research. An appropriate econometric model was selected to study this complex relationship between sanctions and tourism. Each variable was carefully described and characterized during the data collection process to ensure a thorough understanding of the data set. The chosen model facilitated a comprehensive econometric analysis that provided valuable insights into the complex dynamics of the impact of economic sanctions on tourist flows.
The results obtained did not fully support the null hypothesis suggesting that sanctions against a state may lead to a reduction in tourist arrivals. However, the model demonstrated a low level of significance, indicating that the analyzed variables may not fully explain variations in the dependent variable. The econometric model analysis showed that the independent variables included in the model explained approximately 13.856% of the variance in tourist arrivals. Nevertheless, further diagnostics are needed to accurately assess the overall fit and predictive ability of the model.
EU sanctions targeting the tourism sector proved to be insignificant, while sanctions targeting trade and the economy showed a stronger impact. This suggests that trade-related sanctions can significantly affect tourist flows, while sanctions targeting tourism do not. Further research is recommended to identify the most influential variables in this regard.
A study suggests that factors like GDP, distance between countries, and trade agreements have a significant influence on international tourism. Surprisingly, EU sanctions have had a lower impact on tourism than expected, indicating that more research is needed in this area. Studying sanctions that target different economic sectors can provide insights into the effects of sanctions on tourism dynamics. To address the impact of sanctions on tourism, a multifaceted approach is recommended. This approach involves diversifying tourism offerings, exploring opportunities in emerging markets, and strengthening diplomatic relations to facilitate travel. It is also important to invest in tourism infrastructure, promote responsible tourism, and develop human capital to ensure competitiveness and sustainability despite sanctions. Following these recommendations and proactively addressing the challenges of sanctions, destinations can mitigate the negative effects on tourism and ensure long- term development. Cooperation, innovation, and strategic planning are key for
destination countries to overcome sanctions and become stronger players in the global tourism industry.