Исследование роли государственных фискальных регуляторов в повышении экономической эффективности в мировой экономике / An investigation into the role of government fiscal regulators in promoting economic performance in the global economy
Аннотация
The relevance of studying fiscal councils (FCs) within the context of economic growth and fiscal governance cannot be overstated. As global economic landscapes evolve, nations are continually challenged to sustain economic prosperity and stability. In this context, fiscal governance institutions, particularly FCs, have emerged as pivotal players in shaping economic trajectories. FCs are independent bodies tasked with evaluating and supervising government fiscal policies, and their role in promoting fiscal discipline, transparency, and accountability is increasingly recognized.
Recent years have witnessed growing interest from both policymakers and scholars in understanding the potential impact of FCs on economic growth. This interest is driven by the need to navigate complex fiscal landscapes, characterized by rising government debts, fluctuating inflation rates, and varying levels of foreign direct investment (FDI). By scrutinizing fiscal policies and providing independent assessments, FCs can help mitigate fiscal risks and promote sound fiscal management. This, in turn, can foster a stable macroeconomic environment conducive to sustainable growth.
In developing nations, where fiscal governance mechanisms are often weaker, the establishment of FCs could be particularly transformative. These countries face unique challenges in achieving sustainable economic growth, and robust fiscal oversight can play a crucial role in addressing these challenges. By enhancing fiscal discipline and promoting good governance, FCs can help create the conditions necessary for long-term economic development. Therefore, understanding how FCs influence economic indicators such as GDP growth is not only academically significant but also practically vital for policy formulation and economic planning.
During the work, the following research tasks were set:
- define the concept of fiscal councils and examine their institutional structures, roles, and functions within fiscal policy frameworks;
- define and explain the mechanisms of fiscal councils and their role in the economic systems;
- develop and implement an econometric model to measure the causal impact of fiscal councils on economic performance across countries;
- develop a set of policy recommendations upon our results to advance scholarly discourse on the role of fiscal councils in promoting economic growth.
This study aims to determine how the presence and operation of fiscal councils influence key economic indicators such as GDP growth.The object of this research is the functioning of fiscal councils in different countries. The subject of the research is the influence of the establishment of fiscal councils on countries' economic performance, with a specific focus on GDP growth. This distinction allows for a comprehensive analysis of how FCs, as institutions, impact broader economic outcomes.
To assess the impact of fiscal councils on economic performance, a rigorous econometric approach was employed. Initially, pooled ordinary least squares regression was utilized to estimate the general relationship between GDP and key independent variables, including the presence of FCs, political rights index, FDI, debt, and inflation. To address unobserved heterogeneity across countries, random effects and fixed effects models were incorporated. Furthermore, a two-way fixed effects model was applied to control for both time-invariant and time-varying factors specific to each country and year. To fortify causal inference and mitigate potential endogeneity, a Difference-in-Differences methodology was adopted. This innovative approach leveraged the temporal variation in the establishment of FCs, comparing economic performance before and after their introduction while controlling for external trends.
The findings of this study have significant practical implications, particularly within the context of Sustainable Development Goal 8 (SDG 8), which aims to promote sustained, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth. The empirical evidence demonstrates that FCs positively impact GDP growth, emphasizing their role in enhancing economic performance. Policymakers can leverage these insights to advocate for the adoption or strengthening of FCs as part of broader efforts to improve fiscal governance and economic performance. In developed countries, the findings support efforts to reinforce and optimize these institutions, ensuring fiscal discipline and stability. By implementing and empowering FCs, governments can create a stable and predictable economic environment that supports long-term growth and aligns with the objectives of SDG 8.
The study utilized a cross-country panel dataset spanning 46 economies from 1990 to 2022. Every country in the sample had implemented a fiscal council at some stage. Additionally, the sample included 15 countries without FCs, comprising 6 high-income nations, 5 middle-income nations, and 4 low-income nations. This comprehensive dataset provided a robust empirical base for analyzing the impact of FCs on economic performance. Data sources included the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Freedom House, ensuring the reliability and accuracy of the information used in the analysis.
The results of the econometric models show that the establishment of fiscal councils increases the economic efficiency of a country. In countries with FCs, GDP benefits from improved fiscal oversight, leading to more sustainable economic growth. The negative effects of government debt and inflation on GDP are significantly mitigated, suggesting that FCs enhance fiscal discipline and stability. The study's findings carry significant practical implications, especially within the context of SDG 8. FCs bolster fiscal discipline, transparency, and accountability, thereby creating more stable macroeconomic environments conducive to sustainable growth.
Policymakers can leverage these insights to advocate for the adoption or reinforcement of FCs, thereby fostering conditions that support long-term economic resilience and prosperity. This alignment with SDG 8 not only aids in achieving higher GDP growth but also contributes to broader economic stability and improved public sector management, which are critical for sustainable development.
In conclusion, this study demonstrates the positive impact of fiscal councils on economic performance, emphasizing the crucial need to establish and fortify these institutions as a strategic policy measure. By enhancing fiscal discipline, promoting transparency and accountability, reducing borrowing costs, and creating a favorable macroeconomic environment, FCs play a vital role in fostering sustainable economic growth. The findings of this study have significant implications for policymakers, particularly in the context of SDG 8, highlighting the importance of robust fiscal governance mechanisms in achieving sustained, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth. Through the adoption and strengthening of FCs, countries can create more stable and predictable economic environments that support long-term prosperity and development.
Recent years have witnessed growing interest from both policymakers and scholars in understanding the potential impact of FCs on economic growth. This interest is driven by the need to navigate complex fiscal landscapes, characterized by rising government debts, fluctuating inflation rates, and varying levels of foreign direct investment (FDI). By scrutinizing fiscal policies and providing independent assessments, FCs can help mitigate fiscal risks and promote sound fiscal management. This, in turn, can foster a stable macroeconomic environment conducive to sustainable growth.
In developing nations, where fiscal governance mechanisms are often weaker, the establishment of FCs could be particularly transformative. These countries face unique challenges in achieving sustainable economic growth, and robust fiscal oversight can play a crucial role in addressing these challenges. By enhancing fiscal discipline and promoting good governance, FCs can help create the conditions necessary for long-term economic development. Therefore, understanding how FCs influence economic indicators such as GDP growth is not only academically significant but also practically vital for policy formulation and economic planning.
During the work, the following research tasks were set:
- define the concept of fiscal councils and examine their institutional structures, roles, and functions within fiscal policy frameworks;
- define and explain the mechanisms of fiscal councils and their role in the economic systems;
- develop and implement an econometric model to measure the causal impact of fiscal councils on economic performance across countries;
- develop a set of policy recommendations upon our results to advance scholarly discourse on the role of fiscal councils in promoting economic growth.
This study aims to determine how the presence and operation of fiscal councils influence key economic indicators such as GDP growth.The object of this research is the functioning of fiscal councils in different countries. The subject of the research is the influence of the establishment of fiscal councils on countries' economic performance, with a specific focus on GDP growth. This distinction allows for a comprehensive analysis of how FCs, as institutions, impact broader economic outcomes.
To assess the impact of fiscal councils on economic performance, a rigorous econometric approach was employed. Initially, pooled ordinary least squares regression was utilized to estimate the general relationship between GDP and key independent variables, including the presence of FCs, political rights index, FDI, debt, and inflation. To address unobserved heterogeneity across countries, random effects and fixed effects models were incorporated. Furthermore, a two-way fixed effects model was applied to control for both time-invariant and time-varying factors specific to each country and year. To fortify causal inference and mitigate potential endogeneity, a Difference-in-Differences methodology was adopted. This innovative approach leveraged the temporal variation in the establishment of FCs, comparing economic performance before and after their introduction while controlling for external trends.
The findings of this study have significant practical implications, particularly within the context of Sustainable Development Goal 8 (SDG 8), which aims to promote sustained, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth. The empirical evidence demonstrates that FCs positively impact GDP growth, emphasizing their role in enhancing economic performance. Policymakers can leverage these insights to advocate for the adoption or strengthening of FCs as part of broader efforts to improve fiscal governance and economic performance. In developed countries, the findings support efforts to reinforce and optimize these institutions, ensuring fiscal discipline and stability. By implementing and empowering FCs, governments can create a stable and predictable economic environment that supports long-term growth and aligns with the objectives of SDG 8.
The study utilized a cross-country panel dataset spanning 46 economies from 1990 to 2022. Every country in the sample had implemented a fiscal council at some stage. Additionally, the sample included 15 countries without FCs, comprising 6 high-income nations, 5 middle-income nations, and 4 low-income nations. This comprehensive dataset provided a robust empirical base for analyzing the impact of FCs on economic performance. Data sources included the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Freedom House, ensuring the reliability and accuracy of the information used in the analysis.
The results of the econometric models show that the establishment of fiscal councils increases the economic efficiency of a country. In countries with FCs, GDP benefits from improved fiscal oversight, leading to more sustainable economic growth. The negative effects of government debt and inflation on GDP are significantly mitigated, suggesting that FCs enhance fiscal discipline and stability. The study's findings carry significant practical implications, especially within the context of SDG 8. FCs bolster fiscal discipline, transparency, and accountability, thereby creating more stable macroeconomic environments conducive to sustainable growth.
Policymakers can leverage these insights to advocate for the adoption or reinforcement of FCs, thereby fostering conditions that support long-term economic resilience and prosperity. This alignment with SDG 8 not only aids in achieving higher GDP growth but also contributes to broader economic stability and improved public sector management, which are critical for sustainable development.
In conclusion, this study demonstrates the positive impact of fiscal councils on economic performance, emphasizing the crucial need to establish and fortify these institutions as a strategic policy measure. By enhancing fiscal discipline, promoting transparency and accountability, reducing borrowing costs, and creating a favorable macroeconomic environment, FCs play a vital role in fostering sustainable economic growth. The findings of this study have significant implications for policymakers, particularly in the context of SDG 8, highlighting the importance of robust fiscal governance mechanisms in achieving sustained, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth. Through the adoption and strengthening of FCs, countries can create more stable and predictable economic environments that support long-term prosperity and development.