Перспективы реализации импортозамещения в отраслевом разрезе в России / Prospects for import substitution implementation in the industry terms in Russia
Аннотация
Over the last years the topic of import substitution has been becoming more relevant due to the increasing geopolitical tension and external economic challenges that encourage to develop and implement the mechanisms of such policy. Throughout the history of the Russian Federation different import substitution measures have been repeatedly used.
Nevertheless, the recent events, when it was decided to realize such policy, are the most vivid examples. In 2014 the first wave of sanctions forced to form and implement the industrial plans of import substitution. During the period of 2014-2021 there was accelerated development of scientific and technical competencies and domestic production. However, the import substitution processes were based on the foreign technologies.
Large-scale sanctions of the year 2022 led to the new challenges in realization of such policy. Nowadays, the import substitution measures are implemented in order to decrease import dependency in the strategically important industries, complete the value creation chains and achieve the technological sovereignty. Unlike previous situation, there is a new problem: existing dependency on foreign technologies. In the current conditions there is no access to such technologies, as a result of which the need to be substituted for the analogues, that are often low quality. For this reason, conducting the modelling, estimating prospects and forecasting import substitution development are becoming more and more relevant. However, there are no similar models to be compared with the current events. Therefore, there is even greater need to estimate prospects for implementation and develop optimal strategies of import substitution that will help to stabilize the current situation and achieve relative sustainability of the economy.
In this research it was decided to examine the impact of import substitution processes on the medical and IT industries. In order to analyze the changes and results that were the consequences of the first wave of sanctions 2014, the period 2013-2021 was selected for the simulation. This period is characterized by focus on supporting accelerated development, increasing production capacity and active implementing industrial plans of import substitution.
As a result, it was concluded that the success of import substitution programs implementation depends on the selected industry. According to the calculations, the implementation of the plans of import reduction will lead to increase in the production index of IT goods that indicates the prospects and readiness of the industry to develop in the context of reduction in import volumes. Therefore, the set of measures, implemented in the IT industry, was effective, because it facilitated to form the prospects for the industry development in the conditions of forced import substitution implementation. Nevertheless, it is important to pay attention to the relatively low share of the software segment within the total volume of the Russian market. The companies, generating most revenue of the industry, depend on foreign software that causes problems for further doing business due to suspension of foreign companies in the country. For this reason, the measures, that will stimulate the development of domestic software, should be applied. Furthermore, it is important to pay attention to the lack of skilled workers in the industry and the ongoing "brain drain" of specialists. Apart from that, it is necessary to develop measures in the education sphere in order to develop the competences and increase number of staff in the industry, and establish more favorable conditions in the labor market for prevention of migration of professionals.
Nonetheless, the application of import substitution plans in relation to the medical industry will be ineffective for the development of domestic production of medical goods, since, according to the forecasts, a reduction in imports will lead to a decrease in the value of the production index. In this way, at the current moment there is strong demand for imported goods in the industry. As a result, the programs, that had been implemented after the first wave of sanctions, did not lead to formation of prospects for industry development as far as there are risks of decrease of production volumes in the conditions of forced import substitution realization. For this reason, it is necessary to revise plans to reduce imports in the medical industry. Apart from that, the results of the study indicate that the current level of investment support is insufficient. It requires the implementation of stimulating supportive, and developmental policy measures, such as the allocation of subsidies, to encourage production growth. Furthermore, as the industry critically depends on the availability of skilled workers, it is essential to develop and enhance social and educational initiatives in order to better support the implementation of import substitution strategies.
Nevertheless, the recent events, when it was decided to realize such policy, are the most vivid examples. In 2014 the first wave of sanctions forced to form and implement the industrial plans of import substitution. During the period of 2014-2021 there was accelerated development of scientific and technical competencies and domestic production. However, the import substitution processes were based on the foreign technologies.
Large-scale sanctions of the year 2022 led to the new challenges in realization of such policy. Nowadays, the import substitution measures are implemented in order to decrease import dependency in the strategically important industries, complete the value creation chains and achieve the technological sovereignty. Unlike previous situation, there is a new problem: existing dependency on foreign technologies. In the current conditions there is no access to such technologies, as a result of which the need to be substituted for the analogues, that are often low quality. For this reason, conducting the modelling, estimating prospects and forecasting import substitution development are becoming more and more relevant. However, there are no similar models to be compared with the current events. Therefore, there is even greater need to estimate prospects for implementation and develop optimal strategies of import substitution that will help to stabilize the current situation and achieve relative sustainability of the economy.
In this research it was decided to examine the impact of import substitution processes on the medical and IT industries. In order to analyze the changes and results that were the consequences of the first wave of sanctions 2014, the period 2013-2021 was selected for the simulation. This period is characterized by focus on supporting accelerated development, increasing production capacity and active implementing industrial plans of import substitution.
As a result, it was concluded that the success of import substitution programs implementation depends on the selected industry. According to the calculations, the implementation of the plans of import reduction will lead to increase in the production index of IT goods that indicates the prospects and readiness of the industry to develop in the context of reduction in import volumes. Therefore, the set of measures, implemented in the IT industry, was effective, because it facilitated to form the prospects for the industry development in the conditions of forced import substitution implementation. Nevertheless, it is important to pay attention to the relatively low share of the software segment within the total volume of the Russian market. The companies, generating most revenue of the industry, depend on foreign software that causes problems for further doing business due to suspension of foreign companies in the country. For this reason, the measures, that will stimulate the development of domestic software, should be applied. Furthermore, it is important to pay attention to the lack of skilled workers in the industry and the ongoing "brain drain" of specialists. Apart from that, it is necessary to develop measures in the education sphere in order to develop the competences and increase number of staff in the industry, and establish more favorable conditions in the labor market for prevention of migration of professionals.
Nonetheless, the application of import substitution plans in relation to the medical industry will be ineffective for the development of domestic production of medical goods, since, according to the forecasts, a reduction in imports will lead to a decrease in the value of the production index. In this way, at the current moment there is strong demand for imported goods in the industry. As a result, the programs, that had been implemented after the first wave of sanctions, did not lead to formation of prospects for industry development as far as there are risks of decrease of production volumes in the conditions of forced import substitution realization. For this reason, it is necessary to revise plans to reduce imports in the medical industry. Apart from that, the results of the study indicate that the current level of investment support is insufficient. It requires the implementation of stimulating supportive, and developmental policy measures, such as the allocation of subsidies, to encourage production growth. Furthermore, as the industry critically depends on the availability of skilled workers, it is essential to develop and enhance social and educational initiatives in order to better support the implementation of import substitution strategies.