Влияние прямых иностранных инвестиций на участие стран в глобальных цепочках стоимости / Foreign direct investment influence on global value chains participation at country level
Аннотация
This work is devoted to study the concept of global value chains, which represent the complex process of involving value chains of certain products into global process with crossing at least two borders before consumption. This thesis explores the determinants of global value chains and specifically focuses on the impact of foreign direct investment on GVCs. GVCs have become a prominent feature of the global economy, facilitating the fragmentation of production processes across different countries and enhancing global trade integration. Understanding the factors that influence a country's participation in GVCs is of greater importance for policymakers, economists, and businesses.
This research addresses the relevance of studying the determinants of GVCs, with a particular emphasis on the role of FDIs. Firstly, examining the impact of FDIs on GVCs provides insights into the dynamics of international production networks and the allocation of resources across countries. It sheds light on how foreign investments affect a country's position in GVCs, its competitiveness, and its integration into global markets.
Secondly, investigating the relationship between FDIs and GVCs allows for a deeper understanding of the complex interactions and interdependencies between foreign investors and local industries. It explores the mechanisms through which FDIs influence the upgrading of domestic firms, the transfer of technology and knowledge, and the development of local capabilities. This understanding can help policymakers design effective strategies to attract greater portions of GVCs. Moreover, this research acknowledges the differences in GVC participation and highlights the importance of distinguishing between forward and backward linkages. By examining how FDIs impact these different dimensions of GVC involvement, this study contributes to a more clear understanding of the underlying mechanisms and dynamics of GVCs.
The aim of this research is to examine the determinants of global value chains (mainly FDI) and the impact they have on participation in GVCs. The primary goal is to identify the potential outcomes of FDI on different types of participation and assess the effectiveness of FDI towards GVC promotion. Additionally, this study recognizes that GVCs can be categorized into two distinct types: backward and forward linkages. As the effects on these two types may differ, another aim of this research is to identify the influence of determining factors on both backward and forward GVC participation, taking into account their respective impacts.
By comprehensively analyzing the determinants of GVCs, this research seeks to contribute to the existing knowledge in several ways. Firstly, it aims to enhance our understanding of the underlying factors that drive firms' decisions to participate in GVCs. By identifying these determinants, policymakers, businesses, and researchers can gain valuable insights into the factors influencing GVC involvement and potentially design strategies to promote greater participation and competitiveness. Moreover, global value chains can be considered as a stepping stone for developing countries to insert into global economy, and presumably through the process of FDI receiving, while there are also some concerns, that FDIs can efficiently impact global chains.
The object of this study are the countries-participants in global value chains—countries, which take part in international trade in intermediate goods and services. The foreign direct investment as determinant along with other explanatory factors are the subject of the study. The goal of the study is to highlight the primary forces behind GVCs and analyze the effectiveness of FDI-attracting policies on GVCs.
The methodology is used for analysis we employ econometric modelling. Data for GVC indicates, that every set of variables is highly correlated among the cross-sections, which may bias regression results. Moreover, it was revealed that data contains unit root problem. In order to effectively prevent potential biases, we implement CS-ARDL approach, which allows to also display results for long and short run periods separately. Autoregression models take into account the temporal dependencies present in time series data. By incorporating lagged values of the variable being modeled, these models can capture the inherent autocorrelation and account for the relationship between past and current observations.
The examination of the determinants of global value chain participation holds significant relevance for managers, scholars, and policymakers. Given that global value chains are intricately linked to international trade in intermediate products and involve investment decisions by multinational corporations (MNCs), it is reasonable to anticipate that the cross-border movements of long-term capital will have a substantial impact on a country's integration into global value chains and its overall development.
The empirical data of study contains observations for three types of GVCs, which are backward, forward and total as well as determinants such as inward and outward FDIs, R&D expenditures, taxes on international trade and human development index. The OECD's Trade In Value Added database (TIVA) serves as the data source for information on global value chains. The dataset comprises observations for 60 countries, primarily consisting of developed nations, spanning a time period of 24 years from 1995 to 2018. The sample size is determined solely by the availability of data, reflecting any limitations in data availability. Datta sources for explanatory variables is taken from World Bank and UNCTADSTAT databases.
The findings regarding the impact of foreign direct investment on global value chain participation have yielded mixed results, revealing a complex relationship. Inward and outward FDI exhibit differing effects on GVC participation. In the case of backward GVC participation, both inward and outward FDI have a positive influence. This implies that when a country is integrated into the global value chain, its participation in the production stages preceding the final product is enhanced through FDI inflows and outflows. On the other hand, both inward and outward FDI have a negative impact on forward GVC participation. This suggests that a country's GDP may decrease as a result of integration into the global value chain, as both inward and outward FDI often involve the relocation of production stages outside the country. Although this outcome is a common consequence of globalization processes, directly compensating for such relocation can be challenging.
The practical implications of these findings indicate that the advantages of FDI-attracting policies have ambiguous results in the context of GVCs. First of all, two types of GVCs: forward and backward substitute each other and FDI accelerate this process. Thus, growth or decline in FDI will increase one type of participation in GVCs and decrease other. As a result, total participation may not change, although internal structural changes are likely to occur. Therefore, we concern about policies directed on FDI to be effective for promotion of GVCs. Secondly, we reveal positive results regarding innovation and R&D in the economy. Results say that R&D expenditures and human development positively affect backward and total GVC as well. Therefore, right policies for GVC include increase in the innovation potential and trade barriers withdrawal rather than policies connected to FDI. They could work only if intended for intermediate goods and services. Speaking of effects from GVCs, participating countries benefit from various spillover effects, such as increased access to technologies, best management practices, and demand for high-skilled labor. Additionally, they may experience increasing returns to scale and higher wage levels. Recognizing these factors as the primary channels through which countries benefit from GVC participation is crucial.
When considering sustainable development, global value chains have both positive and negative effects on the environment. On the positive side, GVCs promote the adoption of cleaner technologies and production processes, leading to reduced greenhouse gas emissions, enhanced resource efficiency, and improved waste management. However, GVCs can also contribute to environmental degradation, especially in developing countries with less stringent environmental regulations. This occurs because companies often transfer their production to countries with lower standards, which can result in inadequate incentives and regulations from the governments of more developed countries. Therefore, it is essential to address these environmental concerns and work towards establishing better environmental regulations and practices throughout the entire global value chain.
In terms of the social dimension, GVCs create employment opportunities and higher incomes, particularly in developing countries where labor costs are lower. Additionally, they facilitate the transfer of knowledge and technology, leading to skill improvements and increased productivity, primarily benefiting those involved in backward participation in the value chain. However, it is important to recognize that GVCs can also have adverse social impacts, such as labor exploitation, substandard working conditions, and human rights abuses. Monitoring working conditions rigorously throughout the entire value chain and establishing codes of conduct are crucial steps to ensure improved circumstances for workers and mitigate these negative social impacts.
This research addresses the relevance of studying the determinants of GVCs, with a particular emphasis on the role of FDIs. Firstly, examining the impact of FDIs on GVCs provides insights into the dynamics of international production networks and the allocation of resources across countries. It sheds light on how foreign investments affect a country's position in GVCs, its competitiveness, and its integration into global markets.
Secondly, investigating the relationship between FDIs and GVCs allows for a deeper understanding of the complex interactions and interdependencies between foreign investors and local industries. It explores the mechanisms through which FDIs influence the upgrading of domestic firms, the transfer of technology and knowledge, and the development of local capabilities. This understanding can help policymakers design effective strategies to attract greater portions of GVCs. Moreover, this research acknowledges the differences in GVC participation and highlights the importance of distinguishing between forward and backward linkages. By examining how FDIs impact these different dimensions of GVC involvement, this study contributes to a more clear understanding of the underlying mechanisms and dynamics of GVCs.
The aim of this research is to examine the determinants of global value chains (mainly FDI) and the impact they have on participation in GVCs. The primary goal is to identify the potential outcomes of FDI on different types of participation and assess the effectiveness of FDI towards GVC promotion. Additionally, this study recognizes that GVCs can be categorized into two distinct types: backward and forward linkages. As the effects on these two types may differ, another aim of this research is to identify the influence of determining factors on both backward and forward GVC participation, taking into account their respective impacts.
By comprehensively analyzing the determinants of GVCs, this research seeks to contribute to the existing knowledge in several ways. Firstly, it aims to enhance our understanding of the underlying factors that drive firms' decisions to participate in GVCs. By identifying these determinants, policymakers, businesses, and researchers can gain valuable insights into the factors influencing GVC involvement and potentially design strategies to promote greater participation and competitiveness. Moreover, global value chains can be considered as a stepping stone for developing countries to insert into global economy, and presumably through the process of FDI receiving, while there are also some concerns, that FDIs can efficiently impact global chains.
The object of this study are the countries-participants in global value chains—countries, which take part in international trade in intermediate goods and services. The foreign direct investment as determinant along with other explanatory factors are the subject of the study. The goal of the study is to highlight the primary forces behind GVCs and analyze the effectiveness of FDI-attracting policies on GVCs.
The methodology is used for analysis we employ econometric modelling. Data for GVC indicates, that every set of variables is highly correlated among the cross-sections, which may bias regression results. Moreover, it was revealed that data contains unit root problem. In order to effectively prevent potential biases, we implement CS-ARDL approach, which allows to also display results for long and short run periods separately. Autoregression models take into account the temporal dependencies present in time series data. By incorporating lagged values of the variable being modeled, these models can capture the inherent autocorrelation and account for the relationship between past and current observations.
The examination of the determinants of global value chain participation holds significant relevance for managers, scholars, and policymakers. Given that global value chains are intricately linked to international trade in intermediate products and involve investment decisions by multinational corporations (MNCs), it is reasonable to anticipate that the cross-border movements of long-term capital will have a substantial impact on a country's integration into global value chains and its overall development.
The empirical data of study contains observations for three types of GVCs, which are backward, forward and total as well as determinants such as inward and outward FDIs, R&D expenditures, taxes on international trade and human development index. The OECD's Trade In Value Added database (TIVA) serves as the data source for information on global value chains. The dataset comprises observations for 60 countries, primarily consisting of developed nations, spanning a time period of 24 years from 1995 to 2018. The sample size is determined solely by the availability of data, reflecting any limitations in data availability. Datta sources for explanatory variables is taken from World Bank and UNCTADSTAT databases.
The findings regarding the impact of foreign direct investment on global value chain participation have yielded mixed results, revealing a complex relationship. Inward and outward FDI exhibit differing effects on GVC participation. In the case of backward GVC participation, both inward and outward FDI have a positive influence. This implies that when a country is integrated into the global value chain, its participation in the production stages preceding the final product is enhanced through FDI inflows and outflows. On the other hand, both inward and outward FDI have a negative impact on forward GVC participation. This suggests that a country's GDP may decrease as a result of integration into the global value chain, as both inward and outward FDI often involve the relocation of production stages outside the country. Although this outcome is a common consequence of globalization processes, directly compensating for such relocation can be challenging.
The practical implications of these findings indicate that the advantages of FDI-attracting policies have ambiguous results in the context of GVCs. First of all, two types of GVCs: forward and backward substitute each other and FDI accelerate this process. Thus, growth or decline in FDI will increase one type of participation in GVCs and decrease other. As a result, total participation may not change, although internal structural changes are likely to occur. Therefore, we concern about policies directed on FDI to be effective for promotion of GVCs. Secondly, we reveal positive results regarding innovation and R&D in the economy. Results say that R&D expenditures and human development positively affect backward and total GVC as well. Therefore, right policies for GVC include increase in the innovation potential and trade barriers withdrawal rather than policies connected to FDI. They could work only if intended for intermediate goods and services. Speaking of effects from GVCs, participating countries benefit from various spillover effects, such as increased access to technologies, best management practices, and demand for high-skilled labor. Additionally, they may experience increasing returns to scale and higher wage levels. Recognizing these factors as the primary channels through which countries benefit from GVC participation is crucial.
When considering sustainable development, global value chains have both positive and negative effects on the environment. On the positive side, GVCs promote the adoption of cleaner technologies and production processes, leading to reduced greenhouse gas emissions, enhanced resource efficiency, and improved waste management. However, GVCs can also contribute to environmental degradation, especially in developing countries with less stringent environmental regulations. This occurs because companies often transfer their production to countries with lower standards, which can result in inadequate incentives and regulations from the governments of more developed countries. Therefore, it is essential to address these environmental concerns and work towards establishing better environmental regulations and practices throughout the entire global value chain.
In terms of the social dimension, GVCs create employment opportunities and higher incomes, particularly in developing countries where labor costs are lower. Additionally, they facilitate the transfer of knowledge and technology, leading to skill improvements and increased productivity, primarily benefiting those involved in backward participation in the value chain. However, it is important to recognize that GVCs can also have adverse social impacts, such as labor exploitation, substandard working conditions, and human rights abuses. Monitoring working conditions rigorously throughout the entire value chain and establishing codes of conduct are crucial steps to ensure improved circumstances for workers and mitigate these negative social impacts.