Влияние волатильности цен на нефть на экономический рост стран импортеров / The impact of oil price volatility on the economic growth of importing countries
Аннотация
The relevance of the work lies in the difficult economic situation for many countries of the world. In 2022, the uncertainty of world oil prices began due to sanctions against the largest exporter, which led to an increase in energy prices, where some countries, such as India and China, benefited, while others, such as Germany and Japan, on the contrary, slowed down economic growth.
The purpose of the work is to assess the impact of oil prices on the economic growth of importing countries.
Tasks:
- consider the concept of oil price volatility, their types and indicators;
- to analyze existing models of economic growth;
- identify the factors and dynamics of changes in prices for oil and oil products in importing countries during the study period;
- using empirical analysis to determine the impact of oil prices in conditions of volatility on the economic growth of importing countries;
- using econometric analysis to determine the impact of prices on oil on the economic growth of importing countries from 1990 to 2022.
The object of the study is the economy of countries importing crude oil.
The subject of the study is the relationship between the level of oil prices during volatility and the economic growth of importing countries.
The paper uses two types of analysis, the first type is qualitative, which is aimed at studying periods of volatility on the example of four importers in India, China, Japan and Germany, namely 2014 - the oil crisis and 2022 - the uncertainty caused by sanctions against the exporter. Qualitative analysis uses graphs with quarterly data collected from the online database - Investments. The second type is a quantitative analysis that focuses on the study of the period from 1990 to 2022 and 4 crude oil importing countries, which is based on a fixed effect panel data model. To improve the results, control variables are introduced into the model: capital growth, labor, gas prices, openness and interest rate - all of these variables can affect economic growth. The variables are collected from the database of the World Bank.
The study confirmed two hypotheses. During periods of oil price volatility, there is a relationship between German, Japan and Indian GDP growth and global price levels. In the cumulative period from 1990 to 2022, for 4 importing countries, the price level affected the change in GDP at the 5% level.
The purpose of the work is to assess the impact of oil prices on the economic growth of importing countries.
Tasks:
- consider the concept of oil price volatility, their types and indicators;
- to analyze existing models of economic growth;
- identify the factors and dynamics of changes in prices for oil and oil products in importing countries during the study period;
- using empirical analysis to determine the impact of oil prices in conditions of volatility on the economic growth of importing countries;
- using econometric analysis to determine the impact of prices on oil on the economic growth of importing countries from 1990 to 2022.
The object of the study is the economy of countries importing crude oil.
The subject of the study is the relationship between the level of oil prices during volatility and the economic growth of importing countries.
The paper uses two types of analysis, the first type is qualitative, which is aimed at studying periods of volatility on the example of four importers in India, China, Japan and Germany, namely 2014 - the oil crisis and 2022 - the uncertainty caused by sanctions against the exporter. Qualitative analysis uses graphs with quarterly data collected from the online database - Investments. The second type is a quantitative analysis that focuses on the study of the period from 1990 to 2022 and 4 crude oil importing countries, which is based on a fixed effect panel data model. To improve the results, control variables are introduced into the model: capital growth, labor, gas prices, openness and interest rate - all of these variables can affect economic growth. The variables are collected from the database of the World Bank.
The study confirmed two hypotheses. During periods of oil price volatility, there is a relationship between German, Japan and Indian GDP growth and global price levels. In the cumulative period from 1990 to 2022, for 4 importing countries, the price level affected the change in GDP at the 5% level.