Факторы и тенденции изменения внутреннего и международного пассажиропотока российских аэропортов / Factors and trends in domestic and international passenger traffic at Russian airports
Аннотация
This graduation paper presents a study that was conducted to better understand the factors and trends affecting the development of international destinations and passenger traffic of Russian airports. The study aims to identify the current state of the aviation industry. The results of the analysis obtained within the framework of the research allow evaluating the current state of the industry and provide an opportunity to forecast its future development.
In the context of the study, a comprehensive analysis of the current state of international destinations and passenger traffic of Russian airports was conducted. An important task was to investigate factors influencing these destinations, such as economic, political and social factors, as well as supply and demand trends in the global aviation market. The analysis was conducted using reliable data and statistical methods to establish the strengths and weaknesses of Russian civil aviation in the context of international destinations. The work consists of the introduction, the main part, the conclusion, the list of literature and the appendix. The main stages of the research are: literature review, analysis of the factors identified in the literature review, definition of the research methodology, search for suitable data and selection of variables, conducting econometric analysis, explaining and discussing the results, making recommendations on the identified results, determining the role of sustainable development in the construction of route network for international destinations, drawing general conclusions of the work and conclusion.
In the theoretical part, the factors influencing the route network of airlines were identified with the help of a literature review. For the review, the works of contemporary authors, whose research is quoted in the international scientific arena and has a high citation rating, were used. The works identified various research methods, including econometric analysis. The classification of the found factors was carried out.
The methodological part defined the data for the study, the time interval, the method of analysis, described the main stages of econometric work.
In the practical part the main conclusions on the performed work are presented, the general recommendations for further development of international flights are given.
The relevance of the research is due to the fact that the world economy and the world air transport market are constantly changing. Civil aviation of Russia before COVID-19 most intensively developed with a priority on international air transportation, so a whole range of restrictions take the aviation industry out of the market struggle. Also, route network changes can affect airlines' profitability and further bankruptcy. Many international airlines have suffered in recent years: borders have become closed and flights between countries are impossible. No sooner had the airlines recovered from COVID-19 than a second blow followed, which was much more dangerous. Considering the events of February 2022, sanctions were introduced against Russia, including the aviation business, by the EU and the US. The topic of changing the route network is also relevant in the context of the environmental sustainability of air travel, as the number of routes increases every year. Consequently, the number of carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere of the Earth is also increasing.
The purpose of the current study is to identify the factors and trends of changes in international destinations and passenger traffic of Russian airports.
The object of the study was defined – passenger traffic, domestic and international.
Subject of the study – Statistical indicators of Russian regions and airports in them.
Data from 2013 to 2021 (9 years) were used for the analysis. The choice of such a time interval is due to the active activities of civil aviation in these years. Many airlines in the Russian aviation industry gained a foothold in the market at this time.
A fixed set of variables was selected as explanatory variables. The explained variables are the key variables of the aviation industry: the number of flights, as well as passenger traffic in Russia as a whole. Six models were built. The explained variables are:
- share of total passenger traffic from the region's population;
- share of domestic passenger traffic from the population of the region;
- share of external passenger traffic from the population of the region;
- the logarithm of the total number of passengers from Russia;
- logarithm of the total number of passengers carried within the country;
- the logarithm of the total number transported abroad.
The set of explanatory variables includes indicators such as GRP per capita, number of resident population on average per year, migration rate per 10,000 population, share of urban population, unemployment rate, average cash income per capita, level of income inequality (Gini coefficient), distance to Moscow, coronavirus, availability of second airport in the region, whether the region hosted the 2018 World Cup, average population age, percentage of people with higher education among all population of the region, and whether the region is a prig.
The information-empirical base of the study includes Russian and foreign databases. The resources used to find the data needed for the study: the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, the Federal Air Transport Agency, the register of open data of Russian aviation, ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization), annual reports of airlines, IATA (International Air Transport Association), the Federal State Statistics Service.
The hypothesis, which was set at the beginning of the study, was confirmed. The dynamics of passenger traffic on domestic and international routes are influenced by the number of resident population, income inequality of the population, the share of urban population, average salary per person, distance to Moscow, coronavirus, the 2018 FIFA World Cup, and the average age of the population.
During the study, interesting and significant results were obtained, which, for example, provide a better understanding of the relationship between the income of the population and the frequency of air travel. One of the factors identified is the positive correlation between the income level of the population and the frequency of air travel. More affluent citizens have more opportunities and resources to travel, both for leisure and business trips. The study also found that inequality in society affects citizens' preferences for air travel. As inequality in society increases, domestic air travel decreases as wealthier citizens more often choose to travel outside the country. This is due to the fact that wealthier people have more opportunities and financial resources to travel internationally, while less wealthy citizens are limited in their options. In addition, the age of the population also has a positive effect on the frequency of air travel. This is explained by the fact that with increasing age people have more time and savings, which they can actively use for tourist trips, including trips abroad. Thus, age becomes an important factor that contributes to the development of air tourism and an increase in the volume of flights.
The factors identified in the study have an important impact on the dynamics and patterns of air travel. Understanding these relationships allows for more targeted civil aviation development strategies, taking into account socio-economic aspects and the needs of different population groups.
This study is a meaningful contribution to solving the important problems currently facing Russian civil aviation. Particular attention is paid to the development of the route network on international routes, as this topic is gaining particular relevance in light of the introduction of sanctions that limit travel, international cooperation and recreational opportunities for citizens.
One of the key features of this study is its novelty. By analyzing current geopolitical developments, the study is able to offer new approaches and strategies, as well as recommendations that will help Russian civil aviation to effectively overcome the challenges associated with travel restrictions. In addition, it is worth noting that the academic community in Russia has rarely studied this topic, which makes this study even more significant and almost unique in its kind.
In the context of the study, a comprehensive analysis of the current state of international destinations and passenger traffic of Russian airports was conducted. An important task was to investigate factors influencing these destinations, such as economic, political and social factors, as well as supply and demand trends in the global aviation market. The analysis was conducted using reliable data and statistical methods to establish the strengths and weaknesses of Russian civil aviation in the context of international destinations. The work consists of the introduction, the main part, the conclusion, the list of literature and the appendix. The main stages of the research are: literature review, analysis of the factors identified in the literature review, definition of the research methodology, search for suitable data and selection of variables, conducting econometric analysis, explaining and discussing the results, making recommendations on the identified results, determining the role of sustainable development in the construction of route network for international destinations, drawing general conclusions of the work and conclusion.
In the theoretical part, the factors influencing the route network of airlines were identified with the help of a literature review. For the review, the works of contemporary authors, whose research is quoted in the international scientific arena and has a high citation rating, were used. The works identified various research methods, including econometric analysis. The classification of the found factors was carried out.
The methodological part defined the data for the study, the time interval, the method of analysis, described the main stages of econometric work.
In the practical part the main conclusions on the performed work are presented, the general recommendations for further development of international flights are given.
The relevance of the research is due to the fact that the world economy and the world air transport market are constantly changing. Civil aviation of Russia before COVID-19 most intensively developed with a priority on international air transportation, so a whole range of restrictions take the aviation industry out of the market struggle. Also, route network changes can affect airlines' profitability and further bankruptcy. Many international airlines have suffered in recent years: borders have become closed and flights between countries are impossible. No sooner had the airlines recovered from COVID-19 than a second blow followed, which was much more dangerous. Considering the events of February 2022, sanctions were introduced against Russia, including the aviation business, by the EU and the US. The topic of changing the route network is also relevant in the context of the environmental sustainability of air travel, as the number of routes increases every year. Consequently, the number of carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere of the Earth is also increasing.
The purpose of the current study is to identify the factors and trends of changes in international destinations and passenger traffic of Russian airports.
The object of the study was defined – passenger traffic, domestic and international.
Subject of the study – Statistical indicators of Russian regions and airports in them.
Data from 2013 to 2021 (9 years) were used for the analysis. The choice of such a time interval is due to the active activities of civil aviation in these years. Many airlines in the Russian aviation industry gained a foothold in the market at this time.
A fixed set of variables was selected as explanatory variables. The explained variables are the key variables of the aviation industry: the number of flights, as well as passenger traffic in Russia as a whole. Six models were built. The explained variables are:
- share of total passenger traffic from the region's population;
- share of domestic passenger traffic from the population of the region;
- share of external passenger traffic from the population of the region;
- the logarithm of the total number of passengers from Russia;
- logarithm of the total number of passengers carried within the country;
- the logarithm of the total number transported abroad.
The set of explanatory variables includes indicators such as GRP per capita, number of resident population on average per year, migration rate per 10,000 population, share of urban population, unemployment rate, average cash income per capita, level of income inequality (Gini coefficient), distance to Moscow, coronavirus, availability of second airport in the region, whether the region hosted the 2018 World Cup, average population age, percentage of people with higher education among all population of the region, and whether the region is a prig.
The information-empirical base of the study includes Russian and foreign databases. The resources used to find the data needed for the study: the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, the Federal Air Transport Agency, the register of open data of Russian aviation, ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization), annual reports of airlines, IATA (International Air Transport Association), the Federal State Statistics Service.
The hypothesis, which was set at the beginning of the study, was confirmed. The dynamics of passenger traffic on domestic and international routes are influenced by the number of resident population, income inequality of the population, the share of urban population, average salary per person, distance to Moscow, coronavirus, the 2018 FIFA World Cup, and the average age of the population.
During the study, interesting and significant results were obtained, which, for example, provide a better understanding of the relationship between the income of the population and the frequency of air travel. One of the factors identified is the positive correlation between the income level of the population and the frequency of air travel. More affluent citizens have more opportunities and resources to travel, both for leisure and business trips. The study also found that inequality in society affects citizens' preferences for air travel. As inequality in society increases, domestic air travel decreases as wealthier citizens more often choose to travel outside the country. This is due to the fact that wealthier people have more opportunities and financial resources to travel internationally, while less wealthy citizens are limited in their options. In addition, the age of the population also has a positive effect on the frequency of air travel. This is explained by the fact that with increasing age people have more time and savings, which they can actively use for tourist trips, including trips abroad. Thus, age becomes an important factor that contributes to the development of air tourism and an increase in the volume of flights.
The factors identified in the study have an important impact on the dynamics and patterns of air travel. Understanding these relationships allows for more targeted civil aviation development strategies, taking into account socio-economic aspects and the needs of different population groups.
This study is a meaningful contribution to solving the important problems currently facing Russian civil aviation. Particular attention is paid to the development of the route network on international routes, as this topic is gaining particular relevance in light of the introduction of sanctions that limit travel, international cooperation and recreational opportunities for citizens.
One of the key features of this study is its novelty. By analyzing current geopolitical developments, the study is able to offer new approaches and strategies, as well as recommendations that will help Russian civil aviation to effectively overcome the challenges associated with travel restrictions. In addition, it is worth noting that the academic community in Russia has rarely studied this topic, which makes this study even more significant and almost unique in its kind.