Внешняя и внутренняя миграция населения в России: сравнительный анализ
Аннотация
The research topic of the graduation thesis is relevant in the conditions of the modern economic situation. This is due to the fact that internal and external population migrations significantly affect many socio-economic processes. In the context of globalization, the movement of migration flows both inside and outside Russia is gaining huge proportions. In particular, labor migration has a strong impact on the development of the national economy.
The current migration and demographic situation in the Russian Federation is characterized by a decline in internal mobility against the background of a significant increase in the number of citizens entering and leaving the territory of the Russian Federation. Labor migration flows directed to Russia are characterized by low qualifications and insufficient level of professional training. At the same time, labor emigrants, in most cases, are representatives of highly intelligent labor who leave the country in search of better living conditions. Thus, the Russian labor market is experiencing a shortage of qualified personnel, which is not being replenished by incoming labor migration flows.
It is also important to note that since February 2022, the migration situation in Russia has become more complicated. The deterioration of the socio-economic and political situation caused a significant outflow of the country's population abroad. This has significantly complicated the processes of managing migration policy, since inefficient and untimely measures can lead to an uneven distribution of labor resources, the expansion of the "shadow" sector of the economy, the emergence of illegal migration flows, increased social tension, corruption, and economic losses.
Another urgent problem of migration of the Russian population is the "western drift", that is, the resettlement of the population of Siberia and the Far East to the central and western regions of the country. As a result, the process of depopulation of the population is aggravated, as well as the uneven socio-economic development of the territories of the Russian Federation is increasing. In turn, the question remains whether the external migration of the population can become a tool for solving this problem and replenishing the human capital of the eastern part of Russia.
Thus, it can be argued that in the current economic and political situation there is a clear gap between the theoretical messages of the labor migration policy of the Russian Federation and the realities of the modern world. In this regard, in order to overcome this gap, it remains relevant to study the theoretical and practical aspects of external and internal migration processes in Russia, their comparative analysis and the search for ways to link modern migration policy with the demographic, economic and political situation in the global economy.
The purpose of the graduation thesis is to conduct a comparative analysis of internal and external migrations in Russia and search for directions for their effective regulation in the conditions of the modern world economic and political situation. Based on the goal, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:
- to investigate the essence and types of international migration in the conditions of the modern economic and political situation;
- to determine the factors of external migration in Russia, to make their classification and to identify the impact on socio-economic processes;
- to highlight aspects of internal migration in Russia, the causes and consequences of their influence;
- to analyze the structure and dynamics of external migration in Russia in the period from 2010-2020;
- to assess internal migration in Russia at the present stage;
- to identify the directions and prospects for regulating the processes of external and internal migration in Russia.
The object of the study is internal and external migration flows in Russia, their structure, dynamics of changes in recent years, as well as directions of movement both within the country and abroad.
The subject of the study of the graduation thesis are the factors that determine the directions of the external and internal migration processes in Russia, which allow us to understand the main reasons for resettlement.
The following theoretical methods were used in the study: analysis, synthesis, deduction, induction, classification, analogy, prediction. The following practical methods were also used in the study: horizontal and vertical analysis of statistical data, methods of chain substitutions, method of absolute and relative differences, trend analysis, coefficient method, graphical method, etc.
The practical significance of the study lies in the fact that the implementation of the proposed measures to improve the efficiency of the processes of regulating external and internal migration will optimize the incoming and outgoing external flows of migrants, as well as change the direction of internal migration flows in accordance with the needs of the national economy. In general, this will contribute to a more even distribution of labor resources, a reduction in the "shadow economy", the number of illegal migrants, a decrease in social tension in society, as well as an increase in the economic effect for the state.
The information and empirical base of the research was made up of scientific works of such foreign authors as G.S. Becker, B.R. Chiswick, M. Friedman, B. Gray, J. Hicks, H. Lutz, and others, as well as domestic authors such as A.A. Adamova, A.P. Budilov, L.H. Vagapova, E.S. Vakulenko, A.V. Vinokurova, V.V. Komarovsky, I.K. Petrosyan, etc. The practical basis of the study was statistical data presented on the official websites of the Federal State Statistics Service, the Main Directorate for Migration under the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Population, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, the Government of the Russian Federation.
Regarding the main conclusions based on the results of the graduation thesis, it can be concluded that the first chapter of the study was devoted to the theoretical aspects of external and internal migration of the population. It was determined that population migration is a complex socio-economic phenomenon. The main direction of population migration is labor migration, the purpose of which is to find a job with a higher salary, as well as to improve the standard of living in general in all its aspects.
In the works of Russian scientists, labor migration is understood as a tool for balancing the forces of supply and demand in the international and domestic labor markets. Migration flows are divided into internal and external in relation to a particular state. External migration in Russia includes immigration, that is, the entry of foreign citizens into the territory of the Russian Federation, as well as emigration, that is, the departure of Russian citizens from the country. The main factors of external migration include economic, political, social, cultural, geographical, ethical and other factors.
Internal migration in Russia is the movement of Russians within or between regions of the country. Currently, internal migration is characterized by the relocation of citizens from the least favorable regions in socio-economic terms to large central cities and developed regions of the country. This process has a negative impact on the economic and demographic situation and threatens the national security of the Russian Federation.
The second chapter analyzes the external and internal migration of the Russian population in the period from 2000 to 2020, and also identifies the directions and prospects for regulating migration processes in the Russian Federation. The analysis carried out in the WRC allowed us to determine the following:
- for internal migrants, the most attractive are the Moscow region, Moscow, St. Petersburg, Krasnodar Territory, Kaliningrad Region, the Republic of Tatarstan, Sevastopol;
- the number of internal migrants significantly exceeds the number of foreign migrants during 2000-2020;
- from the 1990s to the present, there has been an outflow of population from the Far North and the Far East, called the "western drift";
- currently, internal migrants choose large cities as places of resettlement, in which there may be a relatively high level of wages has been secured;
- in almost all federal districts, except for the Southern and North Caucasus Federal Districts, in 2020 the natural population decline exceeded the migration increase;
- the Volga, Siberian and Far Eastern Federal Districts are the least attractive for migrants;
- the current demographic and migration situation can have such negative socio-economic consequences as the aging of the workforce, raising the retirement age, shortage of labor and military contingent, etc.
It was determined that the current migration situation in the Russian Federation is characterized by an increase in external and internal migrations. At the same time, external migrations are primarily represented by labor migrations. Internal migrations are aimed at resettlement from small settlements, as well as from the territories of the North of the country and the Far East to the southern and central parts of Russia. Against the background of the natural decline of the population, the issue of regulating external migration remains relevant at present in order to stimulate the influx of migrants to Russia, especially in the form of high-quality labor, in order to make up for the natural decline and prevent a reduction in the country's population. Internal migrations should be managed in such a way as to reduce the outflow of population from rural areas and the Volga, Siberian and Far Eastern Federal districts. In this regard, a systematic approach, actively used in the management of economic entities, can become an effective management tool.
Effective management of migration processes, which would ensure satisfaction of the goals of migration and demographic policy, can be achieved through the use of a systematic approach, which consists in the following:
- determining the optimal migration flow, which would provide compensation for natural loss and replenishment of labor;
- assessment of the existing migration flow;
- comparison of the optimal and existing migration flow in order to identify the direction of regulation;
- development of measures to manage the migration flow;
- stimulation or restriction of external and internal migrations;
- control of the implementation of measures;
- evaluation of the results of the activities carried out;
- determination of achievement of the set goals of migration flow management.
The current migration and demographic situation in the Russian Federation is characterized by a decline in internal mobility against the background of a significant increase in the number of citizens entering and leaving the territory of the Russian Federation. Labor migration flows directed to Russia are characterized by low qualifications and insufficient level of professional training. At the same time, labor emigrants, in most cases, are representatives of highly intelligent labor who leave the country in search of better living conditions. Thus, the Russian labor market is experiencing a shortage of qualified personnel, which is not being replenished by incoming labor migration flows.
It is also important to note that since February 2022, the migration situation in Russia has become more complicated. The deterioration of the socio-economic and political situation caused a significant outflow of the country's population abroad. This has significantly complicated the processes of managing migration policy, since inefficient and untimely measures can lead to an uneven distribution of labor resources, the expansion of the "shadow" sector of the economy, the emergence of illegal migration flows, increased social tension, corruption, and economic losses.
Another urgent problem of migration of the Russian population is the "western drift", that is, the resettlement of the population of Siberia and the Far East to the central and western regions of the country. As a result, the process of depopulation of the population is aggravated, as well as the uneven socio-economic development of the territories of the Russian Federation is increasing. In turn, the question remains whether the external migration of the population can become a tool for solving this problem and replenishing the human capital of the eastern part of Russia.
Thus, it can be argued that in the current economic and political situation there is a clear gap between the theoretical messages of the labor migration policy of the Russian Federation and the realities of the modern world. In this regard, in order to overcome this gap, it remains relevant to study the theoretical and practical aspects of external and internal migration processes in Russia, their comparative analysis and the search for ways to link modern migration policy with the demographic, economic and political situation in the global economy.
The purpose of the graduation thesis is to conduct a comparative analysis of internal and external migrations in Russia and search for directions for their effective regulation in the conditions of the modern world economic and political situation. Based on the goal, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:
- to investigate the essence and types of international migration in the conditions of the modern economic and political situation;
- to determine the factors of external migration in Russia, to make their classification and to identify the impact on socio-economic processes;
- to highlight aspects of internal migration in Russia, the causes and consequences of their influence;
- to analyze the structure and dynamics of external migration in Russia in the period from 2010-2020;
- to assess internal migration in Russia at the present stage;
- to identify the directions and prospects for regulating the processes of external and internal migration in Russia.
The object of the study is internal and external migration flows in Russia, their structure, dynamics of changes in recent years, as well as directions of movement both within the country and abroad.
The subject of the study of the graduation thesis are the factors that determine the directions of the external and internal migration processes in Russia, which allow us to understand the main reasons for resettlement.
The following theoretical methods were used in the study: analysis, synthesis, deduction, induction, classification, analogy, prediction. The following practical methods were also used in the study: horizontal and vertical analysis of statistical data, methods of chain substitutions, method of absolute and relative differences, trend analysis, coefficient method, graphical method, etc.
The practical significance of the study lies in the fact that the implementation of the proposed measures to improve the efficiency of the processes of regulating external and internal migration will optimize the incoming and outgoing external flows of migrants, as well as change the direction of internal migration flows in accordance with the needs of the national economy. In general, this will contribute to a more even distribution of labor resources, a reduction in the "shadow economy", the number of illegal migrants, a decrease in social tension in society, as well as an increase in the economic effect for the state.
The information and empirical base of the research was made up of scientific works of such foreign authors as G.S. Becker, B.R. Chiswick, M. Friedman, B. Gray, J. Hicks, H. Lutz, and others, as well as domestic authors such as A.A. Adamova, A.P. Budilov, L.H. Vagapova, E.S. Vakulenko, A.V. Vinokurova, V.V. Komarovsky, I.K. Petrosyan, etc. The practical basis of the study was statistical data presented on the official websites of the Federal State Statistics Service, the Main Directorate for Migration under the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Population, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, the Government of the Russian Federation.
Regarding the main conclusions based on the results of the graduation thesis, it can be concluded that the first chapter of the study was devoted to the theoretical aspects of external and internal migration of the population. It was determined that population migration is a complex socio-economic phenomenon. The main direction of population migration is labor migration, the purpose of which is to find a job with a higher salary, as well as to improve the standard of living in general in all its aspects.
In the works of Russian scientists, labor migration is understood as a tool for balancing the forces of supply and demand in the international and domestic labor markets. Migration flows are divided into internal and external in relation to a particular state. External migration in Russia includes immigration, that is, the entry of foreign citizens into the territory of the Russian Federation, as well as emigration, that is, the departure of Russian citizens from the country. The main factors of external migration include economic, political, social, cultural, geographical, ethical and other factors.
Internal migration in Russia is the movement of Russians within or between regions of the country. Currently, internal migration is characterized by the relocation of citizens from the least favorable regions in socio-economic terms to large central cities and developed regions of the country. This process has a negative impact on the economic and demographic situation and threatens the national security of the Russian Federation.
The second chapter analyzes the external and internal migration of the Russian population in the period from 2000 to 2020, and also identifies the directions and prospects for regulating migration processes in the Russian Federation. The analysis carried out in the WRC allowed us to determine the following:
- for internal migrants, the most attractive are the Moscow region, Moscow, St. Petersburg, Krasnodar Territory, Kaliningrad Region, the Republic of Tatarstan, Sevastopol;
- the number of internal migrants significantly exceeds the number of foreign migrants during 2000-2020;
- from the 1990s to the present, there has been an outflow of population from the Far North and the Far East, called the "western drift";
- currently, internal migrants choose large cities as places of resettlement, in which there may be a relatively high level of wages has been secured;
- in almost all federal districts, except for the Southern and North Caucasus Federal Districts, in 2020 the natural population decline exceeded the migration increase;
- the Volga, Siberian and Far Eastern Federal Districts are the least attractive for migrants;
- the current demographic and migration situation can have such negative socio-economic consequences as the aging of the workforce, raising the retirement age, shortage of labor and military contingent, etc.
It was determined that the current migration situation in the Russian Federation is characterized by an increase in external and internal migrations. At the same time, external migrations are primarily represented by labor migrations. Internal migrations are aimed at resettlement from small settlements, as well as from the territories of the North of the country and the Far East to the southern and central parts of Russia. Against the background of the natural decline of the population, the issue of regulating external migration remains relevant at present in order to stimulate the influx of migrants to Russia, especially in the form of high-quality labor, in order to make up for the natural decline and prevent a reduction in the country's population. Internal migrations should be managed in such a way as to reduce the outflow of population from rural areas and the Volga, Siberian and Far Eastern Federal districts. In this regard, a systematic approach, actively used in the management of economic entities, can become an effective management tool.
Effective management of migration processes, which would ensure satisfaction of the goals of migration and demographic policy, can be achieved through the use of a systematic approach, which consists in the following:
- determining the optimal migration flow, which would provide compensation for natural loss and replenishment of labor;
- assessment of the existing migration flow;
- comparison of the optimal and existing migration flow in order to identify the direction of regulation;
- development of measures to manage the migration flow;
- stimulation or restriction of external and internal migrations;
- control of the implementation of measures;
- evaluation of the results of the activities carried out;
- determination of achievement of the set goals of migration flow management.