Международная торговля как фактор влияния на экологическое положение в странах БРИИКС и ОЭСР / International trade as a factor of influence on the environmental condition in BRIICS and OECD countries
Аннотация
Over the last few years, the natural conditions of the environment have dramatically deteriorated under the rapid development of the world's economies. Accelerating processes such as globalization and industrialization have lead humanity to a situation where carbon dioxide emissions have started to increase significantly worldwide. The resulting intensification of macroeconomic activities has become a major threat to the familiar life on the planet. In addition, with increasing human needs and the unequal distribution of resources, international trade has also begun to be seen to a certain degree as a negative externality, as the stimulation of large import and export flows brings higher rates of product output from different sectors. The effects of these interlinkages have already appeared, and their effects aren’t localized. Environmental problems affect the entire world community, they cause the worst possible scenarios of anomalies and natural disasters. From global warming due to melting ice at the poles to total climate change, humans are in grave danger. For this reason the largest communities of scientists, researchers, specialists in various fields of economy and ecology and authorities of the countries in the world are trying to find a solution to the problem. Unfortunately, there is no single centralized answer to the question under the current circumstances. The problem is a complex phenomenon of several economic factors, so its settlement requires a decomposition of tasks, which should first slow down the pace of the impending disaster by developing effective environmental containment measures, and then gradually move closer to achieving decorbonisation and a transition to alternative energy sources.
The objective of the work is to analyze the impact of international trade and globalization in the forestry, agriculture, electricity, and manufacturing sectors on CO2 emissions in the OECD and BRICS countries. In addition it also aims to assess the effectiveness of environmental measures introduced by public authorities. In order to achieve the objective, tasks have been established that aim to study scientific researches and literature, collect data on export/import categories and divide them into subsamples on the impact of international trade and globalization on the environmental measurement of countries and the concept of EKC to form further conclusions of the work.
The object of the study is the BRIICS developing countries and the OECD cooperation organization. The subject of the study is international trade in the sectors of manufacturing, agriculture, electricity and forestry, as well as economic and environmental factors affecting CO2 emissions, including globalization.
The methodological framework in this work is based on empirical and econometric analysis. These two methods of analysis involve such analysis techniques as consideration of descriptive statistics, construction of correlation matrices, regression modeling.
Accordingly, all of the foregoing suggests that the practical significance of the graduate thesis is based on a complex and particularly relevant problem - the deterioration of the ecological environment under the influence of factors of the global economy, in particular international trade.
The info-empirical base of the study includes 5 main electronic databases focused on socio-economic, environmental indicators. These databases allow to form a sample according to a long period of time in order to make more consistent conclusions.
The results of the work benchmark the 4 hypotheses proposed at the beginning of the analytical research. The Kuznets environmental curve hypothesis was found to be confirmed for international trade sectors in low GDP per capita subsamples, suggesting that the transition to a post-industrial society for low subsample is possible, while for high subsample the theory couldn't be confirmed.
Countries with lower per capita income were found to pollute more than countries with higher per capita income. This conclusion is consistent with a number of studies by other scientists. In this case, the hypothesis is confirmed in the electricity and manufacturing sectors, based on the variables GDP per capita, electricity consumption per capita, and the globalization index. For the remaining two sectors, the hypothesis isn't rejected, but it isn't confirmed due to insufficient significance of the regression coefficients.
An important part of the final qualification thesis was to determine the effectiveness of environmental containment measures in the field of international trade sectors. The hypothesis that such measures may be ineffective for a particular sector was partially confirmed. The effect of the green tariff in the trade sectors showed that it doesn't reduce CO2 emissions. However, at the same time, it was found that for the manufacturing sector, some measures on the contrary can be effective, this is due to the fact that this sector is the most suitable for the implementation of all the measures under consideration, as it has a large variation in the specificity of production. At the same time, in the low subsample efficiency is higher than in the high subsample, since the need for more active application of measures in the first case is higher, since the average CO2 emissions there are twice as high.
The key hypothesis that export-import groups, depending on the sector of international trade, don't have the same impact on the environment is confirmed.
In the forestry sector, both imports and exports, with increased trade, reduce CO2 emissions in countries with a low subsample. For the electricity and agriculture sectors, increasing exports to low subsample countries accelerates environmental degradation in those countries. Variable imports are significant only in the agricultural sector. And when it increases, the recipient's environmental degradation improves at the expense of what it worsened in the exporting country.
For the manufacturing sector, imports from low subsample countries have been identified as increasing CO2 emissions due to the fact that many of the relevant product categories aren't final products, but enter the balance of new countries to produce them in recycled form, creating new pollution cycles.
Regarding low subsample exports, it has been concluded that the producing country, by exporting its products to the receiving countries, "passes on" the emissions produced in parallel with the product. For this reason, the country, which consumes the final category of the imported product, becomes responsible for the emissions, which were obtained as a result of production of this product.
Based on the findings, it is suggested that achieving a zero carbon footprint is the task of the government. And to fulfill this task, politicians around the world should seek to take the example of those countries that have managed to minimize CO2 emissions as effectively as possible, while maintaining and strengthening international trade relations.
The objective of the work is to analyze the impact of international trade and globalization in the forestry, agriculture, electricity, and manufacturing sectors on CO2 emissions in the OECD and BRICS countries. In addition it also aims to assess the effectiveness of environmental measures introduced by public authorities. In order to achieve the objective, tasks have been established that aim to study scientific researches and literature, collect data on export/import categories and divide them into subsamples on the impact of international trade and globalization on the environmental measurement of countries and the concept of EKC to form further conclusions of the work.
The object of the study is the BRIICS developing countries and the OECD cooperation organization. The subject of the study is international trade in the sectors of manufacturing, agriculture, electricity and forestry, as well as economic and environmental factors affecting CO2 emissions, including globalization.
The methodological framework in this work is based on empirical and econometric analysis. These two methods of analysis involve such analysis techniques as consideration of descriptive statistics, construction of correlation matrices, regression modeling.
Accordingly, all of the foregoing suggests that the practical significance of the graduate thesis is based on a complex and particularly relevant problem - the deterioration of the ecological environment under the influence of factors of the global economy, in particular international trade.
The info-empirical base of the study includes 5 main electronic databases focused on socio-economic, environmental indicators. These databases allow to form a sample according to a long period of time in order to make more consistent conclusions.
The results of the work benchmark the 4 hypotheses proposed at the beginning of the analytical research. The Kuznets environmental curve hypothesis was found to be confirmed for international trade sectors in low GDP per capita subsamples, suggesting that the transition to a post-industrial society for low subsample is possible, while for high subsample the theory couldn't be confirmed.
Countries with lower per capita income were found to pollute more than countries with higher per capita income. This conclusion is consistent with a number of studies by other scientists. In this case, the hypothesis is confirmed in the electricity and manufacturing sectors, based on the variables GDP per capita, electricity consumption per capita, and the globalization index. For the remaining two sectors, the hypothesis isn't rejected, but it isn't confirmed due to insufficient significance of the regression coefficients.
An important part of the final qualification thesis was to determine the effectiveness of environmental containment measures in the field of international trade sectors. The hypothesis that such measures may be ineffective for a particular sector was partially confirmed. The effect of the green tariff in the trade sectors showed that it doesn't reduce CO2 emissions. However, at the same time, it was found that for the manufacturing sector, some measures on the contrary can be effective, this is due to the fact that this sector is the most suitable for the implementation of all the measures under consideration, as it has a large variation in the specificity of production. At the same time, in the low subsample efficiency is higher than in the high subsample, since the need for more active application of measures in the first case is higher, since the average CO2 emissions there are twice as high.
The key hypothesis that export-import groups, depending on the sector of international trade, don't have the same impact on the environment is confirmed.
In the forestry sector, both imports and exports, with increased trade, reduce CO2 emissions in countries with a low subsample. For the electricity and agriculture sectors, increasing exports to low subsample countries accelerates environmental degradation in those countries. Variable imports are significant only in the agricultural sector. And when it increases, the recipient's environmental degradation improves at the expense of what it worsened in the exporting country.
For the manufacturing sector, imports from low subsample countries have been identified as increasing CO2 emissions due to the fact that many of the relevant product categories aren't final products, but enter the balance of new countries to produce them in recycled form, creating new pollution cycles.
Regarding low subsample exports, it has been concluded that the producing country, by exporting its products to the receiving countries, "passes on" the emissions produced in parallel with the product. For this reason, the country, which consumes the final category of the imported product, becomes responsible for the emissions, which were obtained as a result of production of this product.
Based on the findings, it is suggested that achieving a zero carbon footprint is the task of the government. And to fulfill this task, politicians around the world should seek to take the example of those countries that have managed to minimize CO2 emissions as effectively as possible, while maintaining and strengthening international trade relations.