Факторы, влияющие на отток капитала в офшоры: межстрановой анализ /DETERMINANTS OF CAPITAL OUTFLOWS TO OFFSHORES: CROSS-COUNTRY ANALYSIS
Аннотация
One of the main features of the development of the world economy in the second half of the 20th - early 21st century is the intensive expansion of international economic relations, which is manifested in the development and deepening of the system of international division of labor, the activation of cross-border capital flows, the globalization of business, the expansion of foreign companies' access to national markets, the activation exchange of scientific and technical knowledge, know-how and information. It can be stated that the key goal of exporting capital is to increase profits in the medium and long term by placing funds in the most profitable and promising sectors of the foreign economy. Accordingly, the possibility of increasing the efficiency of the investor's activity through the rational investment of funds becomes important.
So, as noted above, the benefit for the host country is to obtain additional financial resources, technology, managerial experience and skilled labor. Foreign direct investment is aimed at developing the world economy, the process of production and reproduction of capital assets, increasing budget volumes and, as a result, stimulating world economic growth. For investor countries, the benefit of foreign direct investment lies in the ability to maximize profits. This is achieved by saving on certain resources, reducing the level of taxation, entering and securing new markets. But what will ultimately induce capital to go offshore, this paper analyzes the economic indicators of countries that can affect the increase or decrease in the outflow of capital to offshore.
The purpose of this study is to identify the relationship between a number of economic indicators of the country to the dependent variable - Foreign direct investment directed to offshore. To achieve this purpose, the following tasks were set objectives:
analyze the main indicators of the world economy, their impact on FDI;
analyze the works of authors with similar topics, identify patterns;
find and transform the data into the correct form to build a model of the influence of variables on the outflow of capital to offshore;
building a model to assess the influence of parameters on the outflow of capital;
analysis of the constructed model of the impact of economic indicators on capital flight.
The object of study of this work is the economy of the investor's country, which sent its capital offshore in a certain period of time. The subject of this study is foreign direct investment directed from the capital of the country to the offshore zone. It should be noted that all capital outflows from the country were considered as from the economic system.
The gravity model was taken as a methodological tool, which before this work was used by many authors to analyze foreign direct investment and its impact on the economies of countries. It is even important to note that the data were taken in a panel form, compiled for a certain period of time and brought into a single form, the Stata program was used to build the model.
The information empirical base of the study is foreign direct investment from the investor's country, the GDP of the investor's country and the offshore was also taken, the annual tax rate in the investor's country and the offshore was taken, the distance between the capital of the investor's country and the offshore was taken. In addition to the model, indicators of the Institutes of the investor's country, as well as the unemployment rate of the investor's country and the inflation rate were taken. Each of the indicators was added to the overall table and taken from 2010 to 2020.
At the end of this study, I would like to say that these conclusions can be put into practice both from the perspective of the investor's country and from the offshore. If the head of state does not want to lose the capital that goes abroad, he needs to reduce the country's GDP, follow the movements of the main money supply. The tactics of the behavior of an offshore state are formed from strong neighbors, a state with a high level of institutions and a GDP above average, then the offshore has a great chance to receive foreign direct investment.
After a large collection of data for 43 offshore zones, a gravity model was built, and the main hypotheses were also identified that satisfied the objectives and goals of this study. As a result, a connection was established between the outflow of capital to offshore countries and the GDP of the investor's country and the distance to offshore. The bottom line was that the amount of foreign investment is proportional to GDP growth in the country and inversely proportional to the offshore distance from the country. A connection between investments and institutions was also established, it was believed that in countries with poorly developed institutions there would be more capital outflow, the study showed that the opposite happens, with a more developed country, capital outflow increases. It is necessary to take into account the fact that a relationship was found between the tax rate of the investor's country and foreign direct investment, but in essence, after additional research, it was found that an increase in the tax rate in any country does not stop large investments from going offshore, for often on the contrary, a high rate attracts more foreign investment than previously thought. Based on the foregoing, conclusions can be drawn that explain some of the behavior of foreign investment, namely the fact that the most developed countries in terms of GDP and institutions have a greater capital outflow to offshore compared to other countries. Also, the distance to offshore is inversely proportional to the amount of offshore, which indicates the desire of investors to develop neighboring countries in order to strengthen economic ties not far from the state. As a result of this work, it is possible to formulate a model of behavior of developed countries, they are trying to invest in offshore zones near their borders in order to quickly access their resources and increase economic activity around them. Also, an important factor is the offshore zone behavior model, in order to receive investment, this country does not need to reduce the tax rate or increase GDP growth, it is necessary to create favorable conditions for storing money and cooperate with economically and socially developed countries close to its borders, thus it will be possible to get the most capital for future development. Ultimately, this work proved the viability of the Gravitational Model, and the goals and objectives set above were fulfilled and new theories were formed that can be applied in practice in the world economy.
So, as noted above, the benefit for the host country is to obtain additional financial resources, technology, managerial experience and skilled labor. Foreign direct investment is aimed at developing the world economy, the process of production and reproduction of capital assets, increasing budget volumes and, as a result, stimulating world economic growth. For investor countries, the benefit of foreign direct investment lies in the ability to maximize profits. This is achieved by saving on certain resources, reducing the level of taxation, entering and securing new markets. But what will ultimately induce capital to go offshore, this paper analyzes the economic indicators of countries that can affect the increase or decrease in the outflow of capital to offshore.
The purpose of this study is to identify the relationship between a number of economic indicators of the country to the dependent variable - Foreign direct investment directed to offshore. To achieve this purpose, the following tasks were set objectives:
analyze the main indicators of the world economy, their impact on FDI;
analyze the works of authors with similar topics, identify patterns;
find and transform the data into the correct form to build a model of the influence of variables on the outflow of capital to offshore;
building a model to assess the influence of parameters on the outflow of capital;
analysis of the constructed model of the impact of economic indicators on capital flight.
The object of study of this work is the economy of the investor's country, which sent its capital offshore in a certain period of time. The subject of this study is foreign direct investment directed from the capital of the country to the offshore zone. It should be noted that all capital outflows from the country were considered as from the economic system.
The gravity model was taken as a methodological tool, which before this work was used by many authors to analyze foreign direct investment and its impact on the economies of countries. It is even important to note that the data were taken in a panel form, compiled for a certain period of time and brought into a single form, the Stata program was used to build the model.
The information empirical base of the study is foreign direct investment from the investor's country, the GDP of the investor's country and the offshore was also taken, the annual tax rate in the investor's country and the offshore was taken, the distance between the capital of the investor's country and the offshore was taken. In addition to the model, indicators of the Institutes of the investor's country, as well as the unemployment rate of the investor's country and the inflation rate were taken. Each of the indicators was added to the overall table and taken from 2010 to 2020.
At the end of this study, I would like to say that these conclusions can be put into practice both from the perspective of the investor's country and from the offshore. If the head of state does not want to lose the capital that goes abroad, he needs to reduce the country's GDP, follow the movements of the main money supply. The tactics of the behavior of an offshore state are formed from strong neighbors, a state with a high level of institutions and a GDP above average, then the offshore has a great chance to receive foreign direct investment.
After a large collection of data for 43 offshore zones, a gravity model was built, and the main hypotheses were also identified that satisfied the objectives and goals of this study. As a result, a connection was established between the outflow of capital to offshore countries and the GDP of the investor's country and the distance to offshore. The bottom line was that the amount of foreign investment is proportional to GDP growth in the country and inversely proportional to the offshore distance from the country. A connection between investments and institutions was also established, it was believed that in countries with poorly developed institutions there would be more capital outflow, the study showed that the opposite happens, with a more developed country, capital outflow increases. It is necessary to take into account the fact that a relationship was found between the tax rate of the investor's country and foreign direct investment, but in essence, after additional research, it was found that an increase in the tax rate in any country does not stop large investments from going offshore, for often on the contrary, a high rate attracts more foreign investment than previously thought. Based on the foregoing, conclusions can be drawn that explain some of the behavior of foreign investment, namely the fact that the most developed countries in terms of GDP and institutions have a greater capital outflow to offshore compared to other countries. Also, the distance to offshore is inversely proportional to the amount of offshore, which indicates the desire of investors to develop neighboring countries in order to strengthen economic ties not far from the state. As a result of this work, it is possible to formulate a model of behavior of developed countries, they are trying to invest in offshore zones near their borders in order to quickly access their resources and increase economic activity around them. Also, an important factor is the offshore zone behavior model, in order to receive investment, this country does not need to reduce the tax rate or increase GDP growth, it is necessary to create favorable conditions for storing money and cooperate with economically and socially developed countries close to its borders, thus it will be possible to get the most capital for future development. Ultimately, this work proved the viability of the Gravitational Model, and the goals and objectives set above were fulfilled and new theories were formed that can be applied in practice in the world economy.