Влияние санкций на прямые иностранные инвестиции в Россию / The influence of sanctions on foreign direct investments in Russia

Исмагилова Регина Рафаилевна

Аннотация


An important condition for the development of the modern economy is high investment activity. Foreign investment volumes and dynamics are the result of multiple set of conditions and factors. In this research author is examining the impact of sanctions on FDI inflows in Russian economy. Russian Federation, as an active player in international investment exchange, has long been one of the most attractive economies
for foreign investors. But after 2014 there has been a significant deterioration in country’s macroeconomic situation. After analysing the inflows of FDI in Russia over the last few years, we can make a conclusion that it has a sharp decrease. The paper is based on the identifying if the sanctions imposition from the United States, European Union and other countries against Russia in 2014 is the factor of FDI inflows reduction or not. This study builds on two methods of research: statistical and empirical analyses.
The analyses of the dynamic and structure of FDI inflows in Russia in the statistical part of the paper proves the tighten connection between sanctions and FDI inflows: the volume of inflows decreased by 68,17% in 2014. Moreover, analysis of the structure showed that the countries, which supported sanctions, greatly reduced their FDI inflows, and that was the main reason of total decline. The empirical part is based on a
gravity model estimated via Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML). As the determinants of FDI there were taken logarithm of GDP, logarithm of the distance, the export of high-technologies, unemployment, tax rate, life expectancy and sanctions, as a dummy variable. It helped to allocate determinants of FDI and proved that sanctions have a negative impact on FDI. In the study I confirmed the fact that implementation of sanctions was the key factor of FDI inflows reduction in Russia after 2014.