Оценка влияния инноваций на экономический рост в странах с различным уровнем дохода

Мамыкин Михаил Сергеевич

Аннотация


There is a consensus that the 21st century is the age of technology. In just two decades, many scientific discoveries have been made, and a huge number of inventions have been developed, which are closely intertwined with everyone's life and without which it is difficult to imagine life. Innovations and new technologies have touched all areas of modern life.
Today innovation plays an increasingly important role in promoting economic and social development, which undoubtedly stimulates innovation and entrepreneurship, has created new forms of social and economic activity.
One of the important lessons of recent decades has been the role of innovation in economic development. Increased innovation has played a major role in the growth dynamics of developing countries.
The purpose of this study is to analyze the differential impact of innovation and innovation development with economic growth in high-, middle-, and low-income countries of the world, and to analyze this relationship in different regions
To achieve this goal the following tasks are set:
- analysis of different points of view on the concept of innovation;
- analysis of modern research in order to study the dominant points of view on this problem;
- formulation of hypotheses;
- selection of the variables necessary for the study on the basis of the research analysis, their description, data collection, description of the methodology;
- construction of an econometric model to assess the impact of innovation and economic growth;
- analysis of the obtained results, formulation of conclusions and recommendations based on the results obtained.
The object of the study is a set of high-, middle- and low-income countries.
The subject of the study is the impact of innovation on economic growth.
The method by which the study will be carried out is econometric analysis using fixed effects models and quantile regression. A fixed effects model is a statistical model in which the model parameters are fixed or non-random variables. This differs from models with random effects and mixed models in which all or some of the model parameters are random variables. Quantile regression is a type of regression analysis used in statistics and econometrics. While the least squares method estimates the conditional mean of the response variable from the values of the predictor variables, quantile regression estimates the conditional median (or other quantiles) of the response variable.
The practical significance of the study lies in the fact that the results of the study can be used in further research by the authors on the topic of the impact of innovation development of countries with different levels of economic growth. The results of this work will be useful for researchers engaged in the search for a link between innovation development and economic growth, as well as for policymakers who are engaged in decision-making in the field of innovation policy of the country.
Research on the impact of innovation and technology on economic growth uses data from the World Development Indicators (WDI), which are presented by the World Bank. The work also uses the data presented in the sustainable development report. The time interval used in this study is 14 years (the period from 2007 to 2020), and the number of countries that have information and participate in the study - 136.
The study found that ICT-related factors, namely exports and imports of goods, as well as exports of services, increase their positive impact on the economy with an increase in the level of economic development.
Despite the fact that the coefficients in the indicators of imports of goods and exports of ICT services were negative, an increase in the level of economic development leads to a decrease in the negative impact. The significance of high-tech exports, on the other hand, was not confirmed.
As for employment in the service sector and Internet users, the results were the opposite of the previous ones. In this situation, as the level of economic development increases, the influence of the variables on economic growth decreases. This is due to the fact that most countries with a high level of development are at the post-industrial stage of economic development. Consequently, the development of post-industrial spheres does not bring the same influence as in the countries that are at the stages below (countries with low and medium levels of development).
The construction of a regression model on the impact of innovative development on sustainable development also allows us to draw some conclusions.
Employment in services has the greatest effect among the innovation variables. A large percentage of the population employed in services signals that the country is at a post-industrial stage of development. These are the countries with a high level of economic development, which allows more means to achieve sustainable development goals. As for the export of ICT goods, its increase leads to an increase in the budget, which can be used to achieve the sustainable development goals.
As for Internet users, their increase leads to a faster spread of problems related to sustainable development. In countries with a high level of Internet networking, it takes less time for people to communicate and to find information, allowing more people to be informed and to contribute to their goals.