Оценка перспектив выхода российских пассажирских самолетов на международные рынки
Аннотация
In today's global economy and open world, air travel has become the key and fastest transport link between distant regions and countries, because everyone's life is becoming more mobile. Without air travel, it is impossible to imagine the existence of many businesses, states and the life of a modern person.
The relevance of this work, first of all, lies in the fact that the civil aviation industry in Russian realities is lagging behind, but the development and distribution of the Sukhoi Superjet 100 project on the world market, as well as the development of a new domestic project MС-21 may affect its further development. Also, many aircraft manufacturing companies focus on the import of components for aircraft, while the Russian Federation is aimed not only at import substitution of parts, but also aircraft, focusing not only on regional air transportation, but also on average routes in terms of range (up to 5 thousand kilometers). In addition to the above, there is a political problem due to a special operation on the territory of Ukraine, which creates uncertainty in the Russian air transportation market. Also, do not forget that the civil aviation industry plays a big role in the social and economic development of the world.
The purpose of my research is to determine the prospects for the development of the passenger aircraft industry in the Russian Federation, taking into account the state of the industry as a whole and the changes that were caused by the difficult economic situation during the COVID-19 pandemic and the current unstable geopolitical situation in connection with the special operation in Ukraine, including sanctions aimed to Russia.
To achieve the goal, I completed the following tasks:
- market analysis of commercial (civil) aviation aircraft manufacturers: main players, current state, forecasts;
- domestic projects Sukhoi Superjet 100 and MC-21: study features, current state, expert forecasts;
- own SWOT analysis of SSJ-100 on points 1 and 2, as well as Porter's Four Corners model for the main competitors (Boeing and Airbus);
- analysis of factors related to the value of shares of the United Aircraft Corporation;
- analysis and interpretation of the obtained results, possible recommendations.
The subject of the study is the prospects for the development of the Russian passenger aircraft industry based on the state of current projects and the position in the world market of the manufacturing company United Aircraft Corporation, with subsequent export of products to the world market.
The objects of study are the Russian civil aviation projects: Sukhoi Superjet 100 and MС-21, PJSC United Aircraft Corporation.
To determine the current position and prospects of the Sukhoi Superjet 100 project, the SWOT analysis method was used. This method helped to identify threats and assess the risks of the project, as well as outline prospects and effective protection measures.
To evaluate the main competitors, Porter's Four Corners Model was used, which was developed by Michael Porter and consists in compiling a model that will help evaluate the intentions and goals of a competitor, as well as the strengths that he uses to achieve them.
To determine the factors affecting the position of the United Aircraft Manufacturing Company, a statistical analysis was carried out, which revealed the influence of the main macroeconomic elements on the value of the company's shares, and the relationship with the value of other companies, both complementary and substitute.
The practical significance of my research lies in the fact that the results can be used to expand the export boundaries of manufactured products, as well as point out weaknesses in projects, the correction of which can bring economic benefits.
The information and empirical base of the study was formed on the basis of the annual reports of companies, official data from the Federal State Statistics Service, materials of monographic studies, author's calculations and Internet resources.
The following conclusions were obtained:
- the world market for aircraft building products has prospects for stable long-term growth;
- the market is dominated by narrow body aircraft used for regional air travel;
- the Russian commercial aircraft industry is going through hard times - lack of funds and technologies to establish production;
- state policy is aimed at maintaining and developing civil aviation projects;
- the projects need to plan the import substitution of components for further successful development.
- UNAC stock prices depends not only on Russian stock market in general, but also on oil prices & strength of Russian ruble.
SSJ-100 can be exported to a friendly countries such as China, India and Latin American countries where narrow-body aircrafts are dominated. The main task is to create a system of proper technical and logistical support of the aircrafts.
The relevance of this work, first of all, lies in the fact that the civil aviation industry in Russian realities is lagging behind, but the development and distribution of the Sukhoi Superjet 100 project on the world market, as well as the development of a new domestic project MС-21 may affect its further development. Also, many aircraft manufacturing companies focus on the import of components for aircraft, while the Russian Federation is aimed not only at import substitution of parts, but also aircraft, focusing not only on regional air transportation, but also on average routes in terms of range (up to 5 thousand kilometers). In addition to the above, there is a political problem due to a special operation on the territory of Ukraine, which creates uncertainty in the Russian air transportation market. Also, do not forget that the civil aviation industry plays a big role in the social and economic development of the world.
The purpose of my research is to determine the prospects for the development of the passenger aircraft industry in the Russian Federation, taking into account the state of the industry as a whole and the changes that were caused by the difficult economic situation during the COVID-19 pandemic and the current unstable geopolitical situation in connection with the special operation in Ukraine, including sanctions aimed to Russia.
To achieve the goal, I completed the following tasks:
- market analysis of commercial (civil) aviation aircraft manufacturers: main players, current state, forecasts;
- domestic projects Sukhoi Superjet 100 and MC-21: study features, current state, expert forecasts;
- own SWOT analysis of SSJ-100 on points 1 and 2, as well as Porter's Four Corners model for the main competitors (Boeing and Airbus);
- analysis of factors related to the value of shares of the United Aircraft Corporation;
- analysis and interpretation of the obtained results, possible recommendations.
The subject of the study is the prospects for the development of the Russian passenger aircraft industry based on the state of current projects and the position in the world market of the manufacturing company United Aircraft Corporation, with subsequent export of products to the world market.
The objects of study are the Russian civil aviation projects: Sukhoi Superjet 100 and MС-21, PJSC United Aircraft Corporation.
To determine the current position and prospects of the Sukhoi Superjet 100 project, the SWOT analysis method was used. This method helped to identify threats and assess the risks of the project, as well as outline prospects and effective protection measures.
To evaluate the main competitors, Porter's Four Corners Model was used, which was developed by Michael Porter and consists in compiling a model that will help evaluate the intentions and goals of a competitor, as well as the strengths that he uses to achieve them.
To determine the factors affecting the position of the United Aircraft Manufacturing Company, a statistical analysis was carried out, which revealed the influence of the main macroeconomic elements on the value of the company's shares, and the relationship with the value of other companies, both complementary and substitute.
The practical significance of my research lies in the fact that the results can be used to expand the export boundaries of manufactured products, as well as point out weaknesses in projects, the correction of which can bring economic benefits.
The information and empirical base of the study was formed on the basis of the annual reports of companies, official data from the Federal State Statistics Service, materials of monographic studies, author's calculations and Internet resources.
The following conclusions were obtained:
- the world market for aircraft building products has prospects for stable long-term growth;
- the market is dominated by narrow body aircraft used for regional air travel;
- the Russian commercial aircraft industry is going through hard times - lack of funds and technologies to establish production;
- state policy is aimed at maintaining and developing civil aviation projects;
- the projects need to plan the import substitution of components for further successful development.
- UNAC stock prices depends not only on Russian stock market in general, but also on oil prices & strength of Russian ruble.
SSJ-100 can be exported to a friendly countries such as China, India and Latin American countries where narrow-body aircrafts are dominated. The main task is to create a system of proper technical and logistical support of the aircrafts.