Экологическая миграция и ее последствия для стран Центральной Азии
Аннотация
The relevance of the topic of environmental migration stems from the fact that increasing climate change on Earth and global warming are exacerbating social and economic problems. A case study in the Central Asian region examined the relationship between migration and climate change and natural change. As a result of this work, the main trends in migration due to environmental change and the main consequences of this process were identified, as well as the main vulnerabilities in each country in the territory of Central Asia, the main causes of environmental migration and its consequences have been identified.
In Central Asia, both water availability and crop yields will contribute to the formation of climatic migration zones in already densely populated and economically productive areas, new areas with potential sources of income. However, in mountainous areas important for agriculture and pastoralism, where water scarcity will worsen, rural-urban migration may increase. It is important to make urban planning climate-friendly and able to provide universal access to adequate housing, employment opportunities, infrastructure, communications and services. Many countries in Central Asia are already taking measures to ensure the sustainability of climate-sensitive industries and economic diversification by integrating climate priorities into national development strategies and processes.
Domestic climate migration is projected to increase over the next few decades, and then accelerate in the second half of this century, unless countries reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and build resilience to the current and future impacts of climate change. So-called «hotbeds» of climate migration will occur within countries by 2030: outflow of «climatic» migrants will occur from areas where sources of income will be threatened by climate change, and inflow - to areas, where people have more opportunities to earn a living. Climate change - especially its effects, such as increased water scarcity, reduced crop yields and sea-level rise, exacerbated by storm surges - may force people in distress to relocate. Pockets of climate migration may emerge in a number of countries as early as 2030, and will continue to increase in scale and intensity thereafter. In order to limit the humanitarian impact of climate change, it is clear that reducing emissions and achieving environmental, sustainable and inclusive development must be central. At the same time, countries can also anticipate and prepare for the impact of factors that encourage migration, for example by helping communities to adapt locally by diversifying sources of income or, where necessary, by facilitating resettlement. Concerted action to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and to achieve green, inclusive and sustainable development that can reduce internal climate migration by as much as 80 per cent is essential and urgent. As a consequence of the declining trend in global emissions, climate change impacts such as reduced crop yields, water scarcity and sea-level rise in Central Asian countries could be mitigated.
In most Central Asian countries, economic growth - as well as poverty reduction gains - are closely intertwined with trends in migration and remittances. Migration - like goods, capital and even technology moving across State borders - is influenced by «coercion» and «attraction». Empirical evidence points to a number of common factors shaping migration trends.
Prospective migrants weigh the economic, social and personal costs and benefits that influence their decisions on whether to leave and choose a country. They change their place of residence and low-paid jobs, as well as unsuitable locations for healthy living to better-paid jobs, and move to labour markets where employment opportunities already exist or will arise, as well as to countries where there are or will be employment opportunities
The work consists of an introduction, a theoretical part and a conclusion. The total workload is 90 pages. The work contains 53 sources, 3 tables and 23 figures.
In Central Asia, both water availability and crop yields will contribute to the formation of climatic migration zones in already densely populated and economically productive areas, new areas with potential sources of income. However, in mountainous areas important for agriculture and pastoralism, where water scarcity will worsen, rural-urban migration may increase. It is important to make urban planning climate-friendly and able to provide universal access to adequate housing, employment opportunities, infrastructure, communications and services. Many countries in Central Asia are already taking measures to ensure the sustainability of climate-sensitive industries and economic diversification by integrating climate priorities into national development strategies and processes.
Domestic climate migration is projected to increase over the next few decades, and then accelerate in the second half of this century, unless countries reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and build resilience to the current and future impacts of climate change. So-called «hotbeds» of climate migration will occur within countries by 2030: outflow of «climatic» migrants will occur from areas where sources of income will be threatened by climate change, and inflow - to areas, where people have more opportunities to earn a living. Climate change - especially its effects, such as increased water scarcity, reduced crop yields and sea-level rise, exacerbated by storm surges - may force people in distress to relocate. Pockets of climate migration may emerge in a number of countries as early as 2030, and will continue to increase in scale and intensity thereafter. In order to limit the humanitarian impact of climate change, it is clear that reducing emissions and achieving environmental, sustainable and inclusive development must be central. At the same time, countries can also anticipate and prepare for the impact of factors that encourage migration, for example by helping communities to adapt locally by diversifying sources of income or, where necessary, by facilitating resettlement. Concerted action to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and to achieve green, inclusive and sustainable development that can reduce internal climate migration by as much as 80 per cent is essential and urgent. As a consequence of the declining trend in global emissions, climate change impacts such as reduced crop yields, water scarcity and sea-level rise in Central Asian countries could be mitigated.
In most Central Asian countries, economic growth - as well as poverty reduction gains - are closely intertwined with trends in migration and remittances. Migration - like goods, capital and even technology moving across State borders - is influenced by «coercion» and «attraction». Empirical evidence points to a number of common factors shaping migration trends.
Prospective migrants weigh the economic, social and personal costs and benefits that influence their decisions on whether to leave and choose a country. They change their place of residence and low-paid jobs, as well as unsuitable locations for healthy living to better-paid jobs, and move to labour markets where employment opportunities already exist or will arise, as well as to countries where there are or will be employment opportunities
The work consists of an introduction, a theoretical part and a conclusion. The total workload is 90 pages. The work contains 53 sources, 3 tables and 23 figures.