Детерминанты устойчивого развития стран БРИКС в период пандемии / Determinants of the economic resilience in BRICS countries during pandemic
Аннотация
In today's world, socio-economic systems are exposed to internal and external shocks, threats that significantly affect the ability of the economy to respond to them, to recover from shocks experienced or to find new post-crisis ways of development, and the lack of such a response leads to serious negative consequences.
There are now several such factors – digitalization, sanctions, pandemics - and through the globalization of world systems, all countries in the world are affected, regardless of which country is affected by which factor or where it started first. All this translates into a growing general uncertainty: it is only known that these challenges will be faced, but the consequences of this interaction are almost impossible to foresee.
Of course, the countries of the global community are very diverse in their development – there are undisputed leaders among developed countries, but there are also such states (and these are still the majority) that are experiencing serious socio-economic problems. Of particular interest are the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), which are characterized by continuous development even in recessionary conditions. The BRICS countries were chosen because they are located on different continents, have different levels of economic development, economic structure, and other economic system parameters. It is therefore important to understand how the BRICS economies respond differently in terms of their ability to withstand the impact of the pandemic and to adapt to the new conditions.
The aim of this thesis is to analyze the resilience of socio-economic development in the BRICS countries during the pandemic, as the coronavirus pandemic is a severe shock that can have a significant impact on the resilience of the economic system.
To achieve the goal, a number of important tasks need to be accomplished. First, to analyze current approaches to the category of socio-economic resilience. Second, to examine methodological approaches to assessing the resilience of socio-economic systems. Next, to assess the role of the state in ensuring the resilience of socio-economic development in the studied countries during the pandemic based on the study of various sources. Then, monitor the response of the BRICS economies to the pandemic shock and use qualitative statistical analysis and regression models to identify the economic determinants of resilience in the BRICS countries during the pandemic.
The socio-economic systems of the BRICS countries are the object of research in this graduation thesis. It is therefore important to understand how the BRICS economies have responded differently in terms of their ability to withstand and adapt to the impact of the pandemic. The subject of the study is the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the resilience of the BRICS countries.
The methodological basis of the work is statistical comparisons of data, factor and correlation and regression analyses. Econometric analysis of panel data is chosen as the main methodological tool to assess the impact of the estimated factors on the economic resilience. This paper will use both qualitative and quantitative analysis of statistical data to look at changes in variables from different perspectives and form the most complete understanding of the relationships and trends among the selected determinants.
The problems of studying resilience have a practical orientation – how a socio-economic system responds to a stimulus determines its further development and, most importantly, the welfare of the people. Furthermore, once the main factors of resilience have been identified, it is possible to formulate which areas and sectors of the economy need particular attention and focus on to improve the resilience of the countries under study in the future.
The empirical evidence base is represented by reports from economic associations in the sample studied: WDI Data Bank, International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics, Rosstat. The study is based on statistical panel data for 5 BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), characterizing the state of resilience of socio-economic systems during and before the coronavirus pandemic – from 2011 to 2020 inclusive.
In conclusion, we can say that, now, there is no consensus in economic science on the definition of resilience. The analysis of the literature allows us to distinguish four types of resilience according to the two criteria we have identified – the system's response to shock and the duration of its recovery. In the framework of this study, we understand the resilience of the socio-economic system as its ability to withstand adverse internal and external forces, while maintaining development parameters, stable indicators and optimal proportions, dynamism of development and efficient use of resources that are preserved and reproduced for current and future development. Aggregate resilience of the economic system can be formed due to the resilience of its elements and levels, provided by its varieties (financial, environmental, investment, etc.).
In addition, we can argue that there are a huge number of factors that affect the resilience and sustainable development of a country or region. So far, scientists and researchers have not been able to identify them all. This is largely due to the lack of a unified approach to understanding resilience and the lack of a universal research method. Each time new ways of analyzing resilience are used; new determinants are discovered which have not been researched or proven before.
The lack of a unified approach to the definition of resilience prevents the formation of a unified approach for studying this concept. At the same time, the most productive for the study of resilience of economic systems are the works in which the authors apply econometric analysis, which allows us to identify a set of factors that play a leading role in a particular situation in counteracting the system to external and internal shocks. The analysis of studies allowed us to identify four groups of factors that have the most significant impact on resilience: economic, social, natural resource and political.
Subsequent quantitative analysis, which consisted of regression models, confirmed the assumption made by qualitative analysis about the most influential factors affecting resilience. In addition, these methods of data analysis allowed us to confirm the hypothesis proposed in this paper that the pandemic had a negative impact on the socioeconomic development of the BRICS countries.
Overall, the pandemic had a strong negative impact on the resilience of BRICS countries. This is reflected in a significant decline in key macroeconomic indicators and in the level of well-being of their populations. China, however, as the most dynamic developing country, was better able to withstand the pandemic. In contrast, India and South Africa felt a much stronger blow to economic development as they were experiencing a near-crisis condition even before the pandemic began.
To a large extent, government policies and measures introduced to cope with the shock influenced the social and economic systems. The anti-crisis measures implemented by BRICS heads of government during the pandemic are almost always aimed at stabilizing one or more of the factors that we identified as potentially most important in determining the resilience of countries and regions.
Measures specific to all countries under study include the formation of regulations governing the areas most exposed to negative shocks; improvements in administrative and municipal government; the creation of a favorable investment environment; various social support measures; support for small and medium-sized businesses; measures to support the economy that aim to stabilize key macroeconomic indicators. And also: artificial stimulation of demand, regulation of interest rates, support to key sectors of the economy. However, not all actions taken by states to support the resilience of countries have had a positive effect (for example, in India a prolonged lockdown contributed to rising unemployment and a precipitous decline in the number of enterprises).
There are now several such factors – digitalization, sanctions, pandemics - and through the globalization of world systems, all countries in the world are affected, regardless of which country is affected by which factor or where it started first. All this translates into a growing general uncertainty: it is only known that these challenges will be faced, but the consequences of this interaction are almost impossible to foresee.
Of course, the countries of the global community are very diverse in their development – there are undisputed leaders among developed countries, but there are also such states (and these are still the majority) that are experiencing serious socio-economic problems. Of particular interest are the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), which are characterized by continuous development even in recessionary conditions. The BRICS countries were chosen because they are located on different continents, have different levels of economic development, economic structure, and other economic system parameters. It is therefore important to understand how the BRICS economies respond differently in terms of their ability to withstand the impact of the pandemic and to adapt to the new conditions.
The aim of this thesis is to analyze the resilience of socio-economic development in the BRICS countries during the pandemic, as the coronavirus pandemic is a severe shock that can have a significant impact on the resilience of the economic system.
To achieve the goal, a number of important tasks need to be accomplished. First, to analyze current approaches to the category of socio-economic resilience. Second, to examine methodological approaches to assessing the resilience of socio-economic systems. Next, to assess the role of the state in ensuring the resilience of socio-economic development in the studied countries during the pandemic based on the study of various sources. Then, monitor the response of the BRICS economies to the pandemic shock and use qualitative statistical analysis and regression models to identify the economic determinants of resilience in the BRICS countries during the pandemic.
The socio-economic systems of the BRICS countries are the object of research in this graduation thesis. It is therefore important to understand how the BRICS economies have responded differently in terms of their ability to withstand and adapt to the impact of the pandemic. The subject of the study is the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the resilience of the BRICS countries.
The methodological basis of the work is statistical comparisons of data, factor and correlation and regression analyses. Econometric analysis of panel data is chosen as the main methodological tool to assess the impact of the estimated factors on the economic resilience. This paper will use both qualitative and quantitative analysis of statistical data to look at changes in variables from different perspectives and form the most complete understanding of the relationships and trends among the selected determinants.
The problems of studying resilience have a practical orientation – how a socio-economic system responds to a stimulus determines its further development and, most importantly, the welfare of the people. Furthermore, once the main factors of resilience have been identified, it is possible to formulate which areas and sectors of the economy need particular attention and focus on to improve the resilience of the countries under study in the future.
The empirical evidence base is represented by reports from economic associations in the sample studied: WDI Data Bank, International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics, Rosstat. The study is based on statistical panel data for 5 BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), characterizing the state of resilience of socio-economic systems during and before the coronavirus pandemic – from 2011 to 2020 inclusive.
In conclusion, we can say that, now, there is no consensus in economic science on the definition of resilience. The analysis of the literature allows us to distinguish four types of resilience according to the two criteria we have identified – the system's response to shock and the duration of its recovery. In the framework of this study, we understand the resilience of the socio-economic system as its ability to withstand adverse internal and external forces, while maintaining development parameters, stable indicators and optimal proportions, dynamism of development and efficient use of resources that are preserved and reproduced for current and future development. Aggregate resilience of the economic system can be formed due to the resilience of its elements and levels, provided by its varieties (financial, environmental, investment, etc.).
In addition, we can argue that there are a huge number of factors that affect the resilience and sustainable development of a country or region. So far, scientists and researchers have not been able to identify them all. This is largely due to the lack of a unified approach to understanding resilience and the lack of a universal research method. Each time new ways of analyzing resilience are used; new determinants are discovered which have not been researched or proven before.
The lack of a unified approach to the definition of resilience prevents the formation of a unified approach for studying this concept. At the same time, the most productive for the study of resilience of economic systems are the works in which the authors apply econometric analysis, which allows us to identify a set of factors that play a leading role in a particular situation in counteracting the system to external and internal shocks. The analysis of studies allowed us to identify four groups of factors that have the most significant impact on resilience: economic, social, natural resource and political.
Subsequent quantitative analysis, which consisted of regression models, confirmed the assumption made by qualitative analysis about the most influential factors affecting resilience. In addition, these methods of data analysis allowed us to confirm the hypothesis proposed in this paper that the pandemic had a negative impact on the socioeconomic development of the BRICS countries.
Overall, the pandemic had a strong negative impact on the resilience of BRICS countries. This is reflected in a significant decline in key macroeconomic indicators and in the level of well-being of their populations. China, however, as the most dynamic developing country, was better able to withstand the pandemic. In contrast, India and South Africa felt a much stronger blow to economic development as they were experiencing a near-crisis condition even before the pandemic began.
To a large extent, government policies and measures introduced to cope with the shock influenced the social and economic systems. The anti-crisis measures implemented by BRICS heads of government during the pandemic are almost always aimed at stabilizing one or more of the factors that we identified as potentially most important in determining the resilience of countries and regions.
Measures specific to all countries under study include the formation of regulations governing the areas most exposed to negative shocks; improvements in administrative and municipal government; the creation of a favorable investment environment; various social support measures; support for small and medium-sized businesses; measures to support the economy that aim to stabilize key macroeconomic indicators. And also: artificial stimulation of demand, regulation of interest rates, support to key sectors of the economy. However, not all actions taken by states to support the resilience of countries have had a positive effect (for example, in India a prolonged lockdown contributed to rising unemployment and a precipitous decline in the number of enterprises).