Влияние Всестороннего Регионального Экономического Партнерства (ВРЭП) на изменение торговых потоков в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе
Аннотация
Relevance. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is an agreement aimed at broadening and deepening the economic integration of ASEAN countries with Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea. It is believed that the RCEP can help economies throughout the region, which were the first to face the crisis caused by the Covid-19 virus, recover more quickly from the negative economic effects of the pandemic. As the agreement was signed on 15 November 2020, there is little evidence on its impact on Asia-Pacific trade flows to this moment, which makes this research especially relevant.
Research objective. The research objective is to estimate the effect of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on trade flows between countries of the Asia-Pacific region.
Tasks:
− analysis of the theory and experience of regional trade agreements around the world;
− analysis of the features of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and its effects on member states;
− analysis of International trade trends in the Asia-Pacific region;
− evaluation of the impact of RCEP on trade flows in the Asia-Pacific region.
Data and methods. The study involves data on trade flows, GDP, distance and present regional trade agreements (RTAs) between countries of 105 pairs of the RCEP countries. The econometric analysis was conducted by building a gravity model.
Results. Conclusion of a preferential trade agreement increases the volume of trade flows by 2%. However, there is a much more significant indirect effect of trade agreements between Asia-Pacific countries on the volume of trade flows between them. In the absence of an agreement the distance factor affects negatively by 20% more than in the presence of the partnership factor in the model
Research objective. The research objective is to estimate the effect of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on trade flows between countries of the Asia-Pacific region.
Tasks:
− analysis of the theory and experience of regional trade agreements around the world;
− analysis of the features of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and its effects on member states;
− analysis of International trade trends in the Asia-Pacific region;
− evaluation of the impact of RCEP on trade flows in the Asia-Pacific region.
Data and methods. The study involves data on trade flows, GDP, distance and present regional trade agreements (RTAs) between countries of 105 pairs of the RCEP countries. The econometric analysis was conducted by building a gravity model.
Results. Conclusion of a preferential trade agreement increases the volume of trade flows by 2%. However, there is a much more significant indirect effect of trade agreements between Asia-Pacific countries on the volume of trade flows between them. In the absence of an agreement the distance factor affects negatively by 20% more than in the presence of the partnership factor in the model