Влияние иностранной рабочей силы на экономический рост в России
Аннотация
Russia is world’s second largest destination country where over 10 million migrant workers have come to work for their livelihood. As Russia has enormous territory and shrinking indigenous population, it attracts striking number of migrants. Over the past few decades, the major flow of labor migrants come because of higher wage, employment, and similar culture. The main motive of the most of the migrants coming to Russia is related to work and wage as they could able to earn much higher wages than they could in their home countries. This huge flow of migrant workers benefit their countries with remittances and the skills acquired during their migration experience, simultaneously they contribute a significant amount to the destination country’s economic growth and development. This paper discussed how migrant workers face enormous challenges in the Russian Federation and then explored the direct economic contribution of immigrants or labor migrants in Russian national income through their productivity performance. This empirical study has analyzed the impact of migrants on the growth of GDP using Cobb Douglas production approach through linear transformation from the logarithmic form and shows the positive consequences of labor migrants in Russian economy.
This study conducts both qualitative and quantitative research. The main objective of the qualitative analysis is to assess the impact of attitude of local employer and system of employment on the motivation of foreign workers and subsequently on the achievement of the migrant workers. In the second part the study conducted quantitative analysis that is an anticipated outcome from a model which is being created to determine how much migrant workers contribute to the Russian economy which have been successful through the lenses of national income. All data in this study has used a repository of 15 years of data from 2000 to 2014 that were collected yearly. The data were properly scaled up in order to fix the measurement difficulties in the model. The main data sources of this study are Russian Federal State Statistics Service, the World Bank data source and FRED Economic Data. The study primarily applied a production function approach to estimate the impact of migrant workers on Russian’s economic growth using data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), total labor including migrants in Russia and Gross Fixed Capital. As the study attempted to find the contribution of migrants to the overall Russian economy, the formula used here separate total migrant labor from total Russian labor. In order to estimate linear production function Y with the input factors labor and capital, the study used OLS estimation as an econometrics approach.
In the second stage, this paper also investigated the heteroscadastecity and endogeneity test among the variables in order to check the robustness of the regression results of the first model. Thus, the study introduced a new variable as an instrument is Z that was constructed with the ratio of GDP per capita in Russia and GDP per capital in the source countries. Then, the paper implemented the instrument into the previous model used in this study, through two stage least square method as it is the better way to follow 2SLS model to implement instrumental variable.
In the first part of regression analysis presented the coefficients of both labor and capital were strongly significant. In the same way, the regression results constructed only for native employed labors gave us the significant results that showed the labor elasticity than that of capital. As the paper also conducted the heteroscedasticity test to test the residuals, the pattern of scatter diagram showed that there was no heteroscedasticity in the model. From the 2SLS regression result table, new coefficients indicate that instrument brought some changes in the previous outcome, but the difference of percentage generated by OLS and 2SLS model was not very large.
The regression give us the scenario that Russia is having labor intensive economy as it shows the more labor elasticity that measures responsiveness of demand for labor. For both equations, it shows that labor is more elastic than that of capital in Russia. The elasticity of labor demand with respect to output is the key determinant of employment on the labor market and the Russian labor market is characterized by labor demand elasticities with respect to output and wages. The dynamic growth of labor intensive organizations induces the number of employment which allows surplus labors whose income predominantly depend on wage earnings. This is also a reason to make the large number of low skilled migrants to be employed in these labor-intensive industries. Nevertheless, the statistical analysis of this empirical research infers that that migrants have a positive impact on Russian’s economy where national income has significant growth due to migrants’ employment.
This study conducts both qualitative and quantitative research. The main objective of the qualitative analysis is to assess the impact of attitude of local employer and system of employment on the motivation of foreign workers and subsequently on the achievement of the migrant workers. In the second part the study conducted quantitative analysis that is an anticipated outcome from a model which is being created to determine how much migrant workers contribute to the Russian economy which have been successful through the lenses of national income. All data in this study has used a repository of 15 years of data from 2000 to 2014 that were collected yearly. The data were properly scaled up in order to fix the measurement difficulties in the model. The main data sources of this study are Russian Federal State Statistics Service, the World Bank data source and FRED Economic Data. The study primarily applied a production function approach to estimate the impact of migrant workers on Russian’s economic growth using data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), total labor including migrants in Russia and Gross Fixed Capital. As the study attempted to find the contribution of migrants to the overall Russian economy, the formula used here separate total migrant labor from total Russian labor. In order to estimate linear production function Y with the input factors labor and capital, the study used OLS estimation as an econometrics approach.
In the second stage, this paper also investigated the heteroscadastecity and endogeneity test among the variables in order to check the robustness of the regression results of the first model. Thus, the study introduced a new variable as an instrument is Z that was constructed with the ratio of GDP per capita in Russia and GDP per capital in the source countries. Then, the paper implemented the instrument into the previous model used in this study, through two stage least square method as it is the better way to follow 2SLS model to implement instrumental variable.
In the first part of regression analysis presented the coefficients of both labor and capital were strongly significant. In the same way, the regression results constructed only for native employed labors gave us the significant results that showed the labor elasticity than that of capital. As the paper also conducted the heteroscedasticity test to test the residuals, the pattern of scatter diagram showed that there was no heteroscedasticity in the model. From the 2SLS regression result table, new coefficients indicate that instrument brought some changes in the previous outcome, but the difference of percentage generated by OLS and 2SLS model was not very large.
The regression give us the scenario that Russia is having labor intensive economy as it shows the more labor elasticity that measures responsiveness of demand for labor. For both equations, it shows that labor is more elastic than that of capital in Russia. The elasticity of labor demand with respect to output is the key determinant of employment on the labor market and the Russian labor market is characterized by labor demand elasticities with respect to output and wages. The dynamic growth of labor intensive organizations induces the number of employment which allows surplus labors whose income predominantly depend on wage earnings. This is also a reason to make the large number of low skilled migrants to be employed in these labor-intensive industries. Nevertheless, the statistical analysis of this empirical research infers that that migrants have a positive impact on Russian’s economy where national income has significant growth due to migrants’ employment.